Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?
Prediction markets currently give a 38% probability that Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?. This contract trades at 38¢ on Kalshi, closing June 1, 2026. The market has experienced significant bearish momentum, declining 5.3 percentage points over seven days to 40¢, suggesting deteriorating sentiment toward a near-term deal despite 46 days remaining until expiry.
Analysis
The market has experienced significant bearish momentum, declining 5.3 percentage points over seven days to 40¢, suggesting deteriorating sentiment toward a near-term deal despite 46 days remaining until expiry. The extreme implied yield differential (1308.7% for Yes vs 491.6% for No) reflects severe mispricing or genuine conviction that a deal is unlikely, though the 822% realized volatility and 2.93 vol ratio indicate substantial uncertainty and potential mean-reversion risk. With $186,973 open interest but only $31,605 daily volume and a tight 2¢ spread, liquidity is moderate for the contract size, and the 2.3 info arrivals per hour suggest ongoing geopolitical developments could trigger sharp repricing before the June 1 deadline.
Resolution rules
If the United States has agreed to, signed, or accepted a new Iran-US nuclear deal before Jun 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Regime
Edges (12)
Trade
sf trade KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26JUN yes 100