Will legislation that, upon becoming law, results in the Department of Homeland Security being funded at 12:01 AM ET the calendar day after enactment become law before May 15, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 44% probability that Will legislation that, upon becoming law, results in the Department of Homeland Security being funded at 12:01 AM ET .... This contract trades at 44¢ on Kalshi, closing May 15, 2026. This market shows extreme yield metrics (1763% annualized) with only 29 days to expiration, suggesting either severe mispricing or genuine binary cliff risk around DHS funding legislation.
Analysis
This market shows extreme yield metrics (1763% annualized) with only 29 days to expiration, suggesting either severe mispricing or genuine binary cliff risk around DHS funding legislation. The 7-day downtrend from 46¢ to 42¢ combined with a realized volatility of 2101% indicates recent price instability, though modest 24-hour volume of $4,376 raises liquidity concerns for position sizing. The neutral regime and high info arrival rate (1.0/h) suggest market participants expect significant legislative developments in the near term, making this a high-uncertainty event bet rather than a stable probability assessment.
Resolution rules
If legislation that, upon becoming law, results in the Department of Homeland Security being funded at 12:01 AM ET the calendar day after enactment has become law before May 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXDHSFUND-26MAY15 yes 100