Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by...
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 97% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
97%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
+3pp
39h ago
24h volume
$62K
1 contracts
Closes
May 31, 2026
8 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by...?: May 31
0x1a68c8…3997
Analysis
This market reflects a 94% probability that Russian forces will capture the entire city of Pokrovsk, located in eastern Ukraine's Donetsk region, by May 31, 2026. The high probability suggests traders expect rapid Russian military advances over the next ten days. The assessment likely reflects current front-line positions, Russian offensive momentum in the region, and Ukrainian defensive capacity. Resolution depends on whether Russian forces achieve complete territorial control of Pokrovsk's administrative boundaries by the deadline. A Ukrainian counteroffensive, significant reinforcements, or supply disruptions could lower this probability, while continued Russian territorial gains would support it. The outcome will be determined factually on May 31 by verified military control maps from independent sources or official announcements.
- ›Current distance between Russian front lines and Pokrovsk's municipal boundaries, measurable via satellite imagery and military reports
- ›Rate of Russian territorial advance in Donetsk region over the past 30 days compared to the distance remaining to Pokrovsk
- ›Ukrainian force deployments and defensive preparations reported in the Pokrovsk area and availability of reinforcements
- ›Status of Russian supply lines and logistics supporting offensive operations in the region
- ›Weather conditions and terrain obstacles between current front lines and Pokrovsk that affect military mobility
What moved the line
- May 21May 31↑47pp47→94¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (97% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In ukraine
Related reading
Russia on the Brink of Capturing Pokrovsk as War Momentum Shifts
The 'Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31' contract surged a staggering 43¢ to 93¢, signaling the market expects a decisive Russian victory within days. This has spillover effects on Ukraine peace deal probabilities, which rose 3¢ to 31¢.
Ukraine Re-Enters Uspenivka – Odds Skyrocket 34 Points
The probability of Ukraine re-entering the key frontline town of Uspenivka by May 31 exploded from 5¢ to 39¢, suggesting a major Ukrainian counteroffensive. This is the day's biggest mover across all topics.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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