Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by...
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 95% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
95%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$21K
1 contracts
Closes
May 31, 2026
6 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by
Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by...?: May 31
0x896165…a25c
Analysis
This probability reflects traders' assessment that Russian forces will capture the Ukrainian town of Huliaipilske within the next nine days. The 79% level suggests relatively high confidence in this outcome, though significant uncertainty remains. The primary drivers are the current military positions and rate of Russian advance in the region. The contract resolves on May 31, 2026, making this a near-term tactical prediction dependent on daily battlefield developments. Factors that could shift the probability include changes in Russian offensive capability, Ukrainian defensive capacity, weather conditions affecting military operations, and the pace of recent combat movements in the area.
- ›Current distance between Russian front lines and Huliaipilske, and documented rate of advance over the past 30 days
- ›Ukrainian defensive positions, troop concentrations, and stated intentions to hold or defend the town
- ›Weather and seasonal conditions affecting ground mobility and combat operations between now and May 31
- ›Recent Russian military losses, equipment availability, and logistics capacity to sustain offensive operations
- ›Historical resolution of similar contracts predicting Russian town captures and actual capture timelines
What moved the line
- May 22May 31↑25pp52→77¢ · Polymarket
- May 21May 31↑21pp31→52¢ · Polymarket
- May 23May 31↑19pp77→96¢ · Polymarket
- May 24May 31↑4pp96→100¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in ukraine
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by...last 97% · 6d
- Will Putin visit China by May 31last 97% · 7d
- Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by...last 96% · 10d
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026last 95% · 18d
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026last 53% · 18d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (95% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In ukraine
Related reading
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The 'Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31' contract surged a staggering 43¢ to 93¢, signaling the market expects a decisive Russian victory within days. This has spillover effects on Ukraine peace deal probabilities, which rose 3¢ to 31¢.
Ukraine Re-Enters Uspenivka – Odds Skyrocket 34 Points
The probability of Ukraine re-entering the key frontline town of Uspenivka by May 31 exploded from 5¢ to 39¢, suggesting a major Ukrainian counteroffensive. This is the day's biggest mover across all topics.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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