Will Max Clark play in a game for any team in the MLB before Sep 1, 2026
Leader sits at 84% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 37%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Nov 1, 2027
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
37¢
Before Sep 1, 2026
Spread
47pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Nov 1, 2027
522 days
Venue
Kalshi
7 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Max Clark play in a game for any team in the MLB before
Will Max Clark play in a game for any team in the MLB before Jul 13, 2026?: Before Jul 13, 2026
KXMLBDEBUT-MCLAR-26JUL13
Will Max Clark play in a game for any team in the MLB before Nov 1, 2027?: Before Nov 1, 2027
KXMLBDEBUT-MCLAR-27NOV01
Will Max Clark play in a game for any team in the MLB before May 1, 2027?: Before May 1, 2027
KXMLBDEBUT-MCLAR-27MAY01
Will Max Clark play in a game for any team in the MLB before Nov 1, 2026?: Before Nov 1, 2026
KXMLBDEBUT-MCLAR-26NOV01
Will Max Clark play in a game for any team in the MLB before Oct 1, 2026?: Before Oct 1, 2026
KXMLBDEBUT-MCLAR-26OCT01
Will Max Clark play in a game for any team in the MLB before Sep 1, 2026?: Before Sep 1, 2026
KXMLBDEBUT-MCLAR-26SEP01
Will Max Clark play in a game for any team in the MLB before Aug 1, 2026?: Before Aug 1, 2026
KXMLBDEBUT-MCLAR-26AUG01
Analysis
This reflects the probability that Max Clark, a professional baseball player, will appear in at least one MLB game before September 1, 2026—roughly 3.5 months from now. The extremely low probability suggests Clark is either not currently on an MLB roster or faces significant barriers to active play during this window. The main factors driving this assessment are his current roster status, injury history or recovery timeline if applicable, and the typical call-up patterns for minor league players at this point in the season. The primary catalyst that would shift this probability would be an official roster transaction—either a promotion from the minor leagues or a signing by an MLB organization—combined with actually entering a game during the compressed remaining timeframe.
- ›Current roster status: whether Clark is on an MLB active roster, injured list, or in minor league assignment
- ›Time compression: only ~3.5 months remain for an appearance to occur, limiting opportunity windows
- ›Recent transaction history: any trades, signings, or release announcements that would provide concrete evidence of pathway to play
- ›Health and availability: confirmation of injury status, rehabilitation timeline, or medical clearance if applicable
- ›Historical precedent: typical timeline for Clark's previous call-ups or appearances to assess likelihood of mid-season opportunity
What moved the line
- May 22Before Nov 1, 2027↓74pp82→8¢ · Kalshi
- May 24Before Nov 1, 2027↑38pp21→59¢ · Kalshi
- May 25Before May 1, 2027↓31pp76→45¢ · Kalshi
- May 26Before Nov 1, 2026↓26pp48→22¢ · Kalshi
- May 22Before May 1, 2027↑26pp32→58¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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