Seattle wins by over 2.5 runs
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 36% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
36%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$702K
20 contracts
Closes
May 6, 2026
3 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
15 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
New York Y wins by over
New York Y wins by over 1.5 runs?: New York Y wins by over 1.5 runs
KXMLBSPREAD-26MAY031335BALNYY-NYY2
New York Y wins by over 2.5 runs?: New York Y wins by over 2.5 runs
KXMLBSPREAD-26MAY031335BALNYY-NYY3
New York Y wins by over 3.5 runs?: New York Y wins by over 3.5 runs
KXMLBSPREAD-26MAY031335BALNYY-NYY4
Cluster 2
Toronto wins by over
Cluster 3
Atlanta wins by over
Cluster 4
Minnesota wins by over
Cluster 5
Los Angeles D wins by over 1.5 runs
Los Angeles D wins by over 1.5 runs?: Los Angeles D wins by over 1.5 runs
KXMLBSPREAD-26MAY031415LADSTL-LAD2
Cluster 6
Boston wins by over 1.5 runs
Boston wins by over 1.5 runs?: Boston wins by over 1.5 runs
KXMLBSPREAD-26MAY031335HOUBOS-BOS2
Cluster 7
Milwaukee wins by over 1.5 runs
Milwaukee wins by over 1.5 runs?: Milwaukee wins by over 1.5 runs
KXMLBSPREAD-26MAY031335MILWSH-MIL2
Cluster 8
Tampa Bay wins by over 1.5 runs
Tampa Bay wins by over 1.5 runs?: Tampa Bay wins by over 1.5 runs
KXMLBSPREAD-26MAY031340SFTB-TB2
Cluster 9
Philadelphia wins by over 1.5 runs
Philadelphia wins by over 1.5 runs?: Philadelphia wins by over 1.5 runs
KXMLBSPREAD-26MAY031340PHIMIA-PHI2
Cluster 10
San Diego wins by over 1.5 runs
San Diego wins by over 1.5 runs?: San Diego wins by over 1.5 runs
KXMLBSPREAD-26MAY031610CWSSD-SD2
Cluster 11
Cleveland wins by over 1.5 runs
Cleveland wins by over 1.5 runs?: Cleveland wins by over 1.5 runs
KXMLBSPREAD-26MAY031605CLEATH-CLE2
Cluster 12
Seattle wins by over 1.5 runs
Seattle wins by over 1.5 runs?: Seattle wins by over 1.5 runs
KXMLBSPREAD-26MAY031610KCSEA-SEA2
Cluster 13
Baltimore wins by over 1.5 runs
Baltimore wins by over 1.5 runs?: Baltimore wins by over 1.5 runs
KXMLBSPREAD-26MAY031335BALNYY-BAL2
Cluster 14
Colorado wins by over 1.5 runs
Colorado wins by over 1.5 runs?: Colorado wins by over 1.5 runs
KXMLBSPREAD-26MAY031510ATLCOL-COL2
Cluster 15
Cincinnati wins by over 3.5 runs
Cincinnati wins by over 3.5 runs?: Cincinnati wins by over 3.5 runs
KXMLBSPREAD-26MAY031335CINPIT-CIN4
What moved the line
- May 3New York Y wins by over 3.5 runs↑4pp25→29¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Toronto wins by over 3.5 runs↑4pp16→20¢ · Kalshi
- May 3New York Y wins by over 2.5 runs↑3pp35→38¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Baltimore wins by over 1.5 runs↑3pp21→24¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 8 min ago.