MSI 2026 Winning Region: LPL (China)
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 27% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
27%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$9K
1 contracts
Closes
Jul 12, 2026
34 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
MSI 2026 Winning Region: LPL
MSI 2026 Winning Region: LPL (China)
0x9f61a4…1634
Analysis
This 18% probability reflects the market's assessment that China's LPL region will win the 2026 Mid-Season Invitational. The LPL has historically been a dominant force in international League of Legends competition, but the current odds suggest skepticism about Chinese teams' chances relative to other regions. The key drivers of this probability are the relative strength of LPL teams heading into the tournament and how they perform in the weeks before MSI 2026. The resolution event will occur when MSI 2026 concludes with a champion crowned, which typically happens in May. Key uncertainties include roster changes, meta shifts favoring or disadvantaging LPL's playstyle, and performance of specific LPL representatives at the event itself.
- ›LPL teams' win-loss records and playoff performance in the 2026 LPL Spring season leading up to MSI
- ›Recent head-to-head results between LPL representatives and teams from other major regions (LEC, LCK, worlds regions)
- ›Meta game alignment with LPL's traditional strengths (teamfighting, macro, or laning depending on 2026 patch state)
- ›Roster stability and player form of the LPL representatives selected for MSI 2026
- ›Prize pool and participation structure of MSI 2026 (whether all major regions send full-strength rosters)
What moved the line
- Jun 7LPL (China)↑6pp21→27¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 1LPL (China)↓5pp27→22¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 2LPL (China)↓4pp22→18¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 3LPL (China)↑3pp18→21¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in china
- Singapore vs. China PR - Halftime Resultlast 45% · 1d
- Singapore vs. China PR - More Marketslast 95% · 1d
- Singapore vs. China PR - Exact Scorelast 14% · 1d
- Singapore vs. China PRlast 61% · 1d
- Will China NBS manufacturing PMI for May 2026 be above 52.0last 93% · 7d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (27% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In china
Related reading
Trump China Visit Locked In at 95% Probability: Markets Expect Mid-May Summit
Donald Trump visiting China by May 15 is priced at 91¢ (+1¢) and by May 31 at 95¢ (+2¢) — extremely high conviction. This would be the most consequential US-China diplomatic engagement since Xi's reelection. Markets are pricing this as a near-certainty.
Trump China Visit May 15 Surges +13¢ — Diplomatic Breakthrough Priced
The Trump-China May 15 visit market jumped +13¢ to 72¢ today, signaling traders believe a diplomatic trip is imminent. Combined with the June 30 market at 83¢, prediction markets are pricing a near-certain Trump visit to China within 7 weeks. This has major implications for tariff de-escalation trades.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.