Will U.S. imports of goods from China for 2026 be below $300 billion
Leader sits at 13% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 4%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Below $300 billion
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
4¢
Below $280 billion
Spread
9pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Feb 4, 2027
137 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will U.S. imports of goods from China for 2026 be below $
Analysis
Markets are pricing an 84% likelihood that U.S. goods imports from China in 2026 will remain below $300 billion. This reflects expectations about trade policy, tariff levels, and bilateral commerce patterns for the full year. The current probability is elevated, suggesting traders expect import volumes to stay constrained either through continued restrictive trade measures or reduced demand. Key upward pressure would come from tariff reductions or policy reversals; downward pressure from escalating duties or accelerated import substitution. The resolution depends on final 2026 import data released by the U.S. Census Bureau, typically in early 2027, though year-to-date figures through mid-2026 already provide substantial information about the trajectory needed to reach or exceed $300 billion by year-end.
- ›U.S.-China tariff rates as of mid-2026 and any scheduled changes announced for H2 2026
- ›Year-to-date import values from January–June 2026 relative to the $150 billion benchmark (half of $300 billion annualized)
- ›Announced tariff exemptions, negotiations, or policy shifts that could alter trade flow assumptions
- ›Alternative sourcing trends and supply-chain diversification away from China across major import categories
- ›Seasonal import patterns in Q3–Q4 2026 relative to historical norms and known inventory cycles
What moved the line
- Sep 18Below $300 billion↓35pp63→28¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Below $300 billion↑28pp35→63¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Below $280 billion↓25pp29→4¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19Below $280 billion↑8pp4→12¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19Below $300 billion↓3pp28→25¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (13% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In china
Related reading
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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