Will U.S. imports of goods from China for 2026 be below $300 billion
Leader sits at 84% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 74%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Below $300 billion
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
74¢
Below $280 billion
Spread
10pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Feb 4, 2027
242 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will U.S. imports of goods from China for 2026 be below $
Will U.S. imports of goods from China for 2026 be below $220 billion?: Below $220 billion
KXCNIMPORT-27FEB04-T220
Will U.S. imports of goods from China for 2026 be below $300 billion?: Below $300 billion
KXCNIMPORT-27FEB04-T300
Will U.S. imports of goods from China for 2026 be below $280 billion?: Below $280 billion
KXCNIMPORT-27FEB04-T280
Will U.S. imports of goods from China for 2026 be below $260 billion?: Below $260 billion
KXCNIMPORT-27FEB04-T260
Will U.S. imports of goods from China for 2026 be below $240 billion?: Below $240 billion
KXCNIMPORT-27FEB04-T240
Analysis
This probability estimates whether U.S. imports from China will fall below $300 billion during 2026, reflecting expectations about trade policy direction. The 33% probability suggests markets currently expect imports to remain above this threshold. Two primary factors influence this outcome: the tariff rate applied to Chinese goods (with contracts showing uncertainty between 10-30% rates on July 1st), which directly affects import costs and volumes, and the overall economic demand for Chinese goods in the U.S. market. The key catalyst is the tariff policy decision expected by mid-2026, as new or modified tariff rates would significantly impact pricing and import decisions. Additional uncertainty comes from potential trade negotiations or policy reversals that could expand or contract the bilateral trade relationship. Historical 2024 imports from China exceeded $400 billion, making a 25% reduction a substantial shift that would require either substantial tariff increases or demand contraction.
- ›Tariff rate on Chinese imports as of July 1, 2026 will directly affect import prices and volumes; current contracts show 65% probability of 10-19.99% rates versus 10% probability of 20-29.99% rates
- ›U.S. economic demand for goods in 2026 will influence import quantity regardless of tariff rates; GDP growth forecasts and consumer spending patterns are key variables
- ›Actual tariff policy implementation and any trade negotiations between now and mid-2026 will serve as primary resolution catalyst
- ›2024 baseline imports from China exceeded $400 billion, meaning $300 billion threshold requires approximately 25% reduction from recent historical levels
- ›Alternative trade routes or supply chain shifts to other countries could reduce China-specific imports even without tariff changes
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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