Singapore vs. China PR - More Markets
Leader sits at 95% across 10 bound outcomes, runner-up at 76%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
O/U 0.5
Outcomes
10
winner-take-all
Runner-up
76¢
O/U 1.5
Spread
19pp
contested
24h volume
$3K
modest
Closes
—
not derived
Venue
Polymarket
10 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Singapore vs. China PR - More Markets
Singapore vs. China PR - More Markets: O/U 0.5
0x307910…c7f8
Singapore vs. China PR - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x6e90e8…49b6
Singapore vs. China PR - More Markets: O/U 5.5
0x62a3a6…e5a0
Singapore vs. China PR - More Markets: China PR (-2.5)
0xe9dbb7…9a24
Singapore vs. China PR - More Markets: China PR (-1.5)
0x1cdd42…5b9e
Singapore vs. China PR - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x1e4be4…3a42
Singapore vs. China PR - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0xe137d9…3e12
Singapore vs. China PR - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0xe8fa2a…df9b
Singapore vs. China PR - More Markets: Singapore (-1.5)
0x812495…32cd
Singapore vs. China PR - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0xcefb42…5674
Analysis
This market reflects a 92% probability that Singapore and China will establish additional public relations or diplomatic markets within a specified timeframe. The high probability suggests traders view such an arrangement as highly likely, though the contract structure (with spreads at 0.5, 1.5, 2.5, and 5.5 outcomes) indicates uncertainty about the scale or quantity of new markets. Key drivers include current bilateral trade relationships, regulatory alignment between the two economies, and historical precedent for such arrangements. The 81% probability on the 1.5 outcome suggests traders expect between one and two additional markets as a baseline scenario. Resolution will depend on official announcements or regulatory filings from either Singapore's or China's relevant authorities that formally establish new market mechanisms or trading relationships.
- ›The O/U 0.5 contract at 92% implies traders assign very high confidence to at least one new market being announced or established
- ›The 39¢ price on China PR (-1.5) indicates material disagreement about whether negative outcomes are priced in
- ›Trading volume is minimal across most contracts ($3 in 24h volume for the China PR spread), suggesting limited market participation and potentially wide bid-ask spreads
- ›The spread between the O/U 0.5 (92¢) and O/U 1.5 (81¢) contracts reveals a 11-percentage-point probability mass assigned to the second market outcome specifically
- ›No scheduled announcement or regulatory decision date appears encoded in current prices, suggesting either near-term resolution expected or information asymmetry among traders
What moved the line
- Jun 3O/U 5.5↓15pp22→7¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 3O/U 4.5↓14pp30→16¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 3China PR (-2.5)↓13pp32→19¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 3Singapore (-1.5)↓12pp27→15¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 3O/U 0.5↑11pp79→90¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in china
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- Singapore vs. China PR - Exact Scorelast 14% · 1d
- Will China NBS manufacturing PMI for May 2026 be above 52.0last 93% · 7d
- Volvo China Openyeslast 70% · 9d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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