Will the Republican party win the governorship in Arizona: Republican party · GOVPARTYAZ-26
Will the Republican party win the governorship in Arizona: Republican party is priced at 20¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 20¢ bid, 25¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 2 inside GOVPARTYAZ-26.
Price history
20¢ current
−5¢Contract brief
If a representative of the Republican party is inaugurated as the governor of Arizona pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Will the Republican party win the governorship in Arizona: Republican party
Rank
#2 of 2
Leader
Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Arizona: Democratic party 74¢
Range
20¢-74¢
Family volume
$212
Identifier
GOVPARTYAZ-26-R
Jun 26, 2026, 1:08 AM UTC · 15m ago
Implied probability
Bid
20¢
Ask
25¢
Spread
5¢
24h volume
$144
Family rank
#2 of 2
2 outcomes · GOVPARTYAZ-26
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Family volume
$212
Orderbook snapshot
20 / 25¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If a representative of the Republican party is inaugurated as the governor of Arizona pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Identifier
GOVPARTYAZ-26-R
Event family
GOVPARTYAZ-26.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$212
Outcomes
2
Highest price
Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Arizona: Democratic party 74¢
Current share
68%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
political
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.