Will Caleb Wilson be drafted by Chicago
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 32% across 10 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
32%
10 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$4K
10 contracts
Closes
Jul 2, 2026
34 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
7 clusters across 10 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Cameron Boozer be drafted
Cluster 2
Will AJ Dybantsa be drafted
Cluster 3
Will Aday Mara be drafted
Cluster 4
Will Darius Acuff be drafted by Sacramento
Will Darius Acuff be drafted by Sacramento?: Sacramento
KXNBADRAFTTEAM-26DACU-SAC
Cluster 5
Will Keaton Wagler be drafted by Los Angeles C
Will Keaton Wagler be drafted by Los Angeles C?: Los Angeles C
KXNBADRAFTTEAM-26KWAG-LAC
Cluster 6
Will Darryn Peterson be drafted by Utah
Will Darryn Peterson be drafted by Utah?: Utah
KXNBADRAFTTEAM-26DPET-UTA
Cluster 7
Will Caleb Wilson be drafted by Memphis
Will Caleb Wilson be drafted by Memphis?: Memphis
KXNBADRAFTTEAM-26CWIL-MEM
Analysis
This 18% probability reflects the current likelihood that Caleb Wilson will be selected by the Chicago Bears in the 2026 NFL Draft. Wilson's draft position depends on several factors: the Bears' specific needs at his position, how other tight end prospects perform pre-draft, and where Chicago chooses to allocate its picks. The draft class composition and team priorities will shift as the draft approaches and more information about prospect evaluations surfaces. The primary catalyst resolving this uncertainty will be the 2026 NFL Draft itself, currently scheduled for April 2026. Until then, changes in mock drafts, team workout reports, and injury updates could move this probability meaningfully. The relatively low current probability suggests markets view other landing spots as more likely for Wilson, though Chicago remains a plausible destination given their offensive needs.
- ›Chicago's current roster composition and stated offensive priorities heading into draft season
- ›Wilson's placement in major mock drafts and professional scouting consensus relative to the Bears' draft position
- ›Injury reports, pro day performance, or other pre-draft evaluation changes affecting Wilson's perceived value
- ›Whether Chicago addresses tight end in free agency or through earlier draft picks before potentially selecting Wilson
- ›The overall tight end prospect class depth and how many other options are available to teams with earlier picks
What moved the line
- May 22Atlanta↑16pp13→29¢ · Kalshi
- May 24Atlanta↓13pp29→16¢ · Kalshi
- May 22Utah↓13pp50→37¢ · Kalshi
- May 23Utah↑12pp37→49¢ · Kalshi
- May 22Sacramento↓9pp25→16¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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