Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 48% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
48%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$5
1 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
236 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026
Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?
0xe97152…5c8b
Analysis
This 55% probability reflects market participants' assessment that OpenAI is more likely than not to launch a social network product before 2026 ends. The current level balances OpenAI's track record of expanding into new product categories and its stated ambitions around AI-driven applications, against the company's recent focus on enterprise products and the competitive challenges of entering social media. The resolution will depend on whether OpenAI makes an explicit public announcement or product release meeting the definition of a social network. Key upcoming signals include OpenAI's product roadmap disclosures and announcements through the remainder of 2026, though no specific scheduled event currently marks the deadline.
- ›OpenAI has not publicly announced a dedicated social network product as of May 2026, making this speculative on future intentions rather than confirmed plans
- ›OpenAI's recent product releases and public statements would need to indicate social network entry as a strategic priority to support higher probabilities
- ›The definition of 'social network' in the contract terms determines what products would qualify—this could include narrow interpretations (dedicated platform) or broader ones (social features in existing products)
- ›Competitive dynamics and technical barriers in social media differ significantly from AI infrastructure, where OpenAI has concentrated resources
- ›The contract expires on December 31, 2026, meaning market participants have only seven months of remaining uncertainty to price into the current probability
What moved the line
- May 6Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?↑29pp26→55¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?↓9pp55→46¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (48% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.