Will Sam Altman testify in front of Congress before Jan 2027
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 19% across 11 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
19%
11 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$67
11 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
145 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
11 clusters across 11 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Sam Altman testify in front of Congress before Jan 2027
Will Sam Altman testify in front of Congress before Jan 2027?: Sam Altman
KXCONGRESSTESTIFY-27JAN-SALT
Cluster 2
Will Mark Zuckerberg testify in front of Congress before Jan 2027
Will Mark Zuckerberg testify in front of Congress before Jan 2027?: Mark Zuckerberg
KXCONGRESSTESTIFY-27JAN-MZUC
Cluster 3
Will Anthony Fauci testify in front of Congress before Jan 2027
Will Anthony Fauci testify in front of Congress before Jan 2027?: Anthony Fauci
KXCONGRESSTESTIFY-27JAN-AFAU
Cluster 4
Will Jerome Powell testify in front of Congress before Jan 2027
Will Jerome Powell testify in front of Congress before Jan 2027?: Jerome Powell
KXCONGRESSTESTIFY-27JAN-JPOW
Cluster 5
Will Barack Obama testify in front of Congress before Jan 2027
Will Barack Obama testify in front of Congress before Jan 2027?: Barack Obama
KXCONGRESSTESTIFY-27JAN-BOBA
Cluster 6
Will Ghislaine Maxwell testify in front of Congress before Jan 2027
Will Ghislaine Maxwell testify in front of Congress before Jan 2027?: Ghislaine Maxwell
KXCONGRESSTESTIFY-27JAN-GMAX
Cluster 7
Will James Donaldson testify in front of Congress before Jan 2027
Will James Donaldson testify in front of Congress before Jan 2027?: James Donaldson
KXCONGRESSTESTIFY-27JAN-JDON
Cluster 8
Will Jelly Roll testify in front of Congress before Jan 2027
Will Jelly Roll testify in front of Congress before Jan 2027?: Jelly Roll
KXCONGRESSTESTIFY-27JAN-JROL
Cluster 9
Will Kamala Harris testify in front of Congress before Jan 2027
Will Kamala Harris testify in front of Congress before Jan 2027?: Kamala Harris
KXCONGRESSTESTIFY-27JAN-KHAR
Cluster 10
Will Shou Zi Chew testify in front of Congress before Jan 2027
Will Shou Zi Chew testify in front of Congress before Jan 2027?: Shou Zi Chew
KXCONGRESSTESTIFY-27JAN-SCHE
Cluster 11
Will Taylor Swift testify in front of Congress before Jan 2027
Will Taylor Swift testify in front of Congress before Jan 2027?: Taylor Swift
KXCONGRESSTESTIFY-27JAN-TSWI
Analysis
This contract measures the probability that Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, will be called to testify before a congressional committee or hearing before January 1, 2027. The current 25% probability reflects moderate uncertainty about whether Congress will prioritize AI regulation hearings featuring Altman over the next six months. Congressional testimony typically occurs in response to either scheduled legislative efforts on AI oversight or reactive political pressure following major AI-related incidents. The timing matters significantly: major AI developments, public controversies, or shifts in congressional AI policy priorities would increase likelihood, while lack of legislative momentum on AI regulation would decrease it. Comparatively, the market prices Altman's testimony as less likely than Fauci's (81%) but more likely than Obama's (9%), suggesting moderate but not overwhelming congressional interest in his participation.
- ›Congressional schedule: Whether AI regulation legislation is formally introduced and scheduled for hearings before January 2027
- ›Competitive testimonies: If major tech CEOs like Zuckerberg (priced at 34%) are called to testify, Altman's inclusion becomes more probable
- ›AI incidents or developments: Significant AI-related events (safety issues, capabilities breakthroughs, or economic disruption) could trigger urgent congressional hearings
- ›Current political priorities: Shifts in congressional focus on AI governance versus other policy areas directly affect hearing scheduling likelihood
- ›Industry group positioning: Whether OpenAI requests or accepts invitations to testify at scheduled oversight hearings
What moved the line
- Aug 8Jerome Powell↑10pp20→30¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 3Anthony Fauci↓6pp10→4¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 7Anthony Fauci↑5pp4→9¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 8Anthony Fauci↑5pp9→14¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 8Barack Obama↓3pp8→5¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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