Will Sam Altman testify in front of Congress before Jan 2027

30-day trend

Analysis

This contract measures the probability that Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, will be called to testify before a congressional committee or hearing before January 1, 2027. The current 25% probability reflects moderate uncertainty about whether Congress will prioritize AI regulation hearings featuring Altman over the next six months. Congressional testimony typically occurs in response to either scheduled legislative efforts on AI oversight or reactive political pressure following major AI-related incidents. The timing matters significantly: major AI developments, public controversies, or shifts in congressional AI policy priorities would increase likelihood, while lack of legislative momentum on AI regulation would decrease it. Comparatively, the market prices Altman's testimony as less likely than Fauci's (81%) but more likely than Obama's (9%), suggesting moderate but not overwhelming congressional interest in his participation.

• ›Congressional schedule: Whether AI regulation legislation is formally introduced and scheduled for hearings before January 2027
• ›Competitive testimonies: If major tech CEOs like Zuckerberg (priced at 34%) are called to testify, Altman's inclusion becomes more probable
• ›AI incidents or developments: Significant AI-related events (safety issues, capabilities breakthroughs, or economic disruption) could trigger urgent congressional hearings
• ›Current political priorities: Shifts in congressional focus on AI governance versus other policy areas directly affect hearing scheduling likelihood
• ›Industry group positioning: Whether OpenAI requests or accepts invitations to testify at scheduled oversight hearings

What moved the line

• Sep 23Mark Zuckerberg↑15pp7→22¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 19Mark Zuckerberg↓14pp21→7¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 17Mark Zuckerberg↓12pp28→16¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 17Shou Zi Chew↓9pp35→26¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 23Shou Zi Chew↑7pp26→33¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds