Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC - More Markets
Leader sits at 78% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 57%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
O/U 1.5
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
57¢
Both Teams to Score
Spread
21pp
contested
24h volume
$18K
liquid
Closes
May 19, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC - More Markets
Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x3b75ac…c77b
Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x36e851…8bdf
Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x98d154…b08e
Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x6a8a2c…8c19
Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC - More Markets: Beijing Guoan FC (-1.5)
0xf1af7e…d3eb
Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x88f176…5df8
Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC - More Markets: Qingdao Xihaian FC (-2.5)
0xb8c02e…5fea
Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC - More Markets: Qingdao Xihaian FC (-1.5)
0xe11960…fa57
Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC - More Markets: Beijing Guoan FC (-2.5)
0x1b0e32…2796
Analysis
This 54% probability reflects market expectations that both Qingdao Xihaian FC and Beijing Guoan FC will score in their upcoming match. The prediction is driven primarily by the teams' recent offensive output and defensive vulnerabilities in Chinese Super League play. Market pricing suggests traders view a high-scoring contest as more likely than low-scoring outcomes, with minimal trading activity on spread markets indicating less conviction around decisive victory margins. The match result will resolve this question definitively on its scheduled date. Liquidity concentration in the both-teams-to-score contract ($2,591 in 24-hour volume) versus near-zero activity on spreads suggests this is the primary focus of market participants assessing this fixture.
- ›Qingdao Xihaian FC's recent goals-for and goals-against rates in their last 5-10 matches compared to Beijing Guoan FC's defensive record
- ›Beijing Guoan FC's home or away status in this fixture, as venue historically affects offensive and defensive performance in Chinese football
- ›Both teams' current injury status affecting key attacking or defensive players, which materially impacts scoring likelihood
- ›Head-to-head scoring patterns in previous meetings between these clubs over the past 2-3 seasons
- ›Recent league-wide trends in both-teams-to-score frequency for matches involving teams in similar competitive standing
What moved the line
- May 19O/U 2.5↓16pp50→34¢ · Polymarket
- May 18Beijing Guoan FC (-2.5)↓14pp23→9¢ · Polymarket
- May 19O/U 3.5↓12pp31→19¢ · Polymarket
- May 19O/U 1.5↓9pp76→67¢ · Polymarket
- May 18Qingdao Xihaian FC (-1.5)↓9pp18→9¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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