Quantum breaks Bitcoin by ___
Leader sits at 23% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 5%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
December 31, 2027
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
5¢
December 31, 2026
Spread
18pp
contested
24h volume
$29
thin orderbook
Closes
—
not derived
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Quantum breaks Bitcoin by ___
Analysis
This 19% probability estimates the odds that quantum computing developments will compromise Bitcoin's security by some point in 2026. The estimate reflects assessments of both near-term quantum advancement timelines and Bitcoin's cryptographic vulnerabilities. The probability would rise if major quantum computing breakthroughs occur, particularly achievements in error correction or qubit count that bring practical cryptanalysis closer to feasibility. It would fall if quantum progress stalls relative to current expectations or if Bitcoin implements post-quantum cryptography upgrades preemptively. Key catalysts include major announcements from quantum computing firms, research publications demonstrating advances in relevant attack methods, and any significant Bitcoin protocol updates addressing quantum risks. Current market pricing suggests participants view large-scale quantum threats as possible but not imminent within this timeframe.
- ›Current quantum computers lack sufficient qubits and error correction to threaten Bitcoin's ECDSA encryption, with estimates suggesting 1-2 million logical qubits would be required for a cryptographically relevant attack
- ›Bitcoin's development roadmap includes no scheduled post-quantum cryptography migration by end-2026, leaving protocol changes as a major uncertainty factor
- ›Major quantum hardware companies have not announced near-term milestones suggesting cryptographically relevant quantum computing within six months
- ›The timeline assumption matters: quantum breakthroughs that threaten Bitcoin could occur years away, making 2026 a narrow resolution window for this specific question
- ›Market concentration is low across these contracts, with top volumes under $54k daily, suggesting limited institutional conviction around the exact probability level
What moved the line
- May 7December 31, 2026↓3pp8→5¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (23% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In bitcoin
Related reading
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.