Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be reported to visit Mar-a-Lago before Jan 1, 2027
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 21% across 10 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
21%
10 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$30
10 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
146 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
10 clusters across 10 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be reported to visit Mar-a-Lago before Jan 1, 2027
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be reported to visit Mar-a-Lago before Jan 1, 2027?: Benjamin Netanyahu
KXMARALAGO-27-BNET
Cluster 2
Will Xi Jinping be reported to visit Mar-a-Lago before Jan 1, 2027
Will Xi Jinping be reported to visit Mar-a-Lago before Jan 1, 2027?: Xi Jinping
KXMARALAGO-27-XJIN
Cluster 3
Will Giorgia Meloni be reported to visit Mar-a-Lago before Jan 1, 2027
Will Giorgia Meloni be reported to visit Mar-a-Lago before Jan 1, 2027?: Giorgia Meloni
KXMARALAGO-27-GMEL
Cluster 4
Will Jeff Bezos be reported to visit Mar-a-Lago before Jan 1, 2027
Will Jeff Bezos be reported to visit Mar-a-Lago before Jan 1, 2027?: Jeff Bezos
KXMARALAGO-27-JBEZ
Cluster 5
Will Jensen Huang be reported to visit Mar-a-Lago before Jan 1, 2027
Will Jensen Huang be reported to visit Mar-a-Lago before Jan 1, 2027?: Jensen Huang
KXMARALAGO-27-JHUA
Cluster 6
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene be reported to visit Mar-a-Lago before Jan 1, 2027
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene be reported to visit Mar-a-Lago before Jan 1, 2027?: Marjorie Taylor Greene
KXMARALAGO-27-MTG
Cluster 7
Will Mark Zuckerberg be reported to visit Mar-a-Lago before Jan 1, 2027
Will Mark Zuckerberg be reported to visit Mar-a-Lago before Jan 1, 2027?: Mark Zuckerberg
KXMARALAGO-27-MZUC
Cluster 8
Will Ron DeSantis be reported to visit Mar-a-Lago before Jan 1, 2027
Will Ron DeSantis be reported to visit Mar-a-Lago before Jan 1, 2027?: Ron DeSantis
KXMARALAGO-27-RDES
Cluster 9
Will Vladimir Putin be reported to visit Mar-a-Lago before Jan 1, 2027
Will Vladimir Putin be reported to visit Mar-a-Lago before Jan 1, 2027?: Vladimir Putin
KXMARALAGO-27-VPUT
Cluster 10
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be reported to visit Mar-a-Lago before Jan 1, 2027
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be reported to visit Mar-a-Lago before Jan 1, 2027?: Volodymyr Zelenskyy
KXMARALAGO-27-VZEL
Analysis
This prediction asks whether Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will be publicly reported visiting Mar-a-Lago, Donald Trump's Florida resort, before the end of 2026. At 19%, the market suggests traders view this as unlikely but plausible within the next five months. The probability reflects uncertainty around Zelenskyy's travel schedule, U.S.-Ukraine relations dynamics, and Trump's engagement with international leaders. Comparable figures in the same prediction set show Netanyahu at 20%, Meloni at 16%, and various tech executives ranging from 3-27%, suggesting Mar-a-Lago visits remain statistically uncommon for most high-profile figures during this period. The main drivers are geopolitical developments in the Ukraine conflict, any Trump-Zelenskyy diplomatic initiatives, and the logistics of scheduling a presidential visit. Resolution depends on publicly available reporting by reputable news sources confirming a visit actually occurred.
- ›Zelenskyy's travel patterns and security constraints given ongoing conflict, which typically limit international visits to diplomatic necessities
- ›Trump's stated positions on Ukraine aid and foreign policy, which would influence whether such a meeting aligns with his strategic interests
- ›Comparable visit probabilities for other world leaders (Netanyahu 20%, Meloni 16%) provide baseline context for typical Mar-a-Lago visitor frequency
- ›No currently scheduled diplomatic summits or announced U.S.-Ukraine high-level meetings as of August 2026 that would necessitate such a visit
- ›Media reporting requirement means even private visits only count if publicly disclosed by news outlets, creating information dependency beyond actual travel occurrence
What moved the line
- Aug 4Ron DeSantis↓8pp68→60¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 3Ron DeSantis↑5pp63→68¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 2Vladimir Putin↓4pp14→10¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 8Xi Jinping↓3pp10→7¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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