Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be reported to visit Mar-a-Lago before Jan 1, 2027
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 24% across 11 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
24%
11 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
+1pp
12h ago
24h volume
$503
11 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
243 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
11 clusters across 11 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be reported to visit Mar-a-Lago before Jan 1, 2027
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be reported to visit Mar-a-Lago before Jan 1, 2027?: Benjamin Netanyahu
KXMARALAGO-27-BNET
Cluster 2
Will Jeff Bezos be reported to visit Mar-a-Lago before Jan 1, 2027
Will Jeff Bezos be reported to visit Mar-a-Lago before Jan 1, 2027?: Jeff Bezos
KXMARALAGO-27-JBEZ
Cluster 3
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be reported to visit Mar-a-Lago before Jan 1, 2027
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be reported to visit Mar-a-Lago before Jan 1, 2027?: Volodymyr Zelenskyy
KXMARALAGO-27-VZEL
Cluster 4
Will Giorgia Meloni be reported to visit Mar-a-Lago before Jan 1, 2027
Will Giorgia Meloni be reported to visit Mar-a-Lago before Jan 1, 2027?: Giorgia Meloni
KXMARALAGO-27-GMEL
Cluster 5
Will Ron DeSantis be reported to visit Mar-a-Lago before Jan 1, 2027
Will Ron DeSantis be reported to visit Mar-a-Lago before Jan 1, 2027?: Ron DeSantis
KXMARALAGO-27-RDES
Cluster 6
Will James Fishback be reported to visit Mar-a-Lago before Jan 1, 2027
Will James Fishback be reported to visit Mar-a-Lago before Jan 1, 2027?: James Fishback
KXMARALAGO-27-JFIS
Cluster 7
Will Mark Zuckerberg be reported to visit Mar-a-Lago before Jan 1, 2027
Will Mark Zuckerberg be reported to visit Mar-a-Lago before Jan 1, 2027?: Mark Zuckerberg
KXMARALAGO-27-MZUC
Cluster 8
Will Jensen Huang be reported to visit Mar-a-Lago before Jan 1, 2027
Will Jensen Huang be reported to visit Mar-a-Lago before Jan 1, 2027?: Jensen Huang
KXMARALAGO-27-JHUA
Cluster 9
Will Xi Jinping be reported to visit Mar-a-Lago before Jan 1, 2027
Will Xi Jinping be reported to visit Mar-a-Lago before Jan 1, 2027?: Xi Jinping
KXMARALAGO-27-XJIN
Cluster 10
Will Vladimir Putin be reported to visit Mar-a-Lago before Jan 1, 2027
Will Vladimir Putin be reported to visit Mar-a-Lago before Jan 1, 2027?: Vladimir Putin
KXMARALAGO-27-VPUT
Cluster 11
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene be reported to visit Mar-a-Lago before Jan 1, 2027
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene be reported to visit Mar-a-Lago before Jan 1, 2027?: Marjorie Taylor Greene
KXMARALAGO-27-MTG
Analysis
This prediction asks whether Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will visit Donald Trump's Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida by the end of 2026, with markets currently assigning a 23% probability to this outcome. The low probability reflects the rarity of such high-level diplomatic visits to private residences and the lack of any announced plans as of early May. The main drivers of this probability are the state of U.S.-Ukraine relations, Trump's political positioning in 2026, and whether Ukraine seeks to cultivate closer ties with Trump ahead of potential policy shifts. Any significant escalation in the Ukraine conflict, major diplomatic initiatives, or public statements from either party about meeting would likely shift market expectations substantially. Resolution will come through media reporting of an actual visit before January 1, 2027.
- ›No scheduled visit has been publicly announced as of May 2026, suggesting limited near-term likelihood
- ›Mar-a-Lago visits by foreign leaders are rare; most high-level diplomatic meetings occur through formal government channels
- ›The outcome depends partly on Trump's political influence and willingness to host Zelenskyy, which could vary significantly based on 2026 political developments
- ›Any trip would likely be reported by multiple news outlets, making verification straightforward once the event occurs or does not occur
- ›Geopolitical developments, such as major shifts in the Ukraine conflict or peace negotiations, could create diplomatic incentives for such an unusual meeting
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 12 min ago.