Will Russia capture Bilytske by...
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 4% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
4%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
1 contracts
Closes
May 31, 2026
22 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Russia capture Bilytske by
Will Russia capture Bilytske by...?: May 31
0xfdea89…027a
Analysis
This contract reflects a 12% market expectation that Russian forces will capture Bilytske by a specified deadline. The relatively low probability suggests market participants assess significant obstacles to rapid territorial gains in this sector. The main factors influencing this level are the current pace of Russian advances in eastern Ukraine and the logistical capacity to sustain offensive operations. Related Polymarket contracts show higher probabilities for capturing nearby Kostyantynivka by year-end (77%) versus June 30 (27%), indicating markets expect slower progress if any occurs. The primary uncertainty resolver will be battlefield developments over the coming weeks, particularly whether Russian forces can maintain momentum or face defensive stabilization from Ukrainian forces.
- ›Current front-line positions and the distance of Bilytske from active Russian-held territory determine feasibility within the timeframe
- ›Russian artillery, manpower availability, and supply line sustainability directly affect operational tempo and territorial progression rates
- ›Ukrainian defensive capacity, including fortification status and troop concentration in the sector, creates friction against rapid Russian advances
- ›The contrast between lower near-term probabilities (10-27% by June 30) and higher year-end expectations (77% by December) indicates markets expect slow or stalled progress in coming months
- ›Weather, seasonal conditions, and infrastructure damage affect operational planning and logistics through the specified deadline period
What moved the line
- May 6May 31↓7pp12→5¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (4% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In ukraine
Related reading
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.