Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by...
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 3% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
3%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$308
1 contracts
Closes
May 31, 2026
22 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by...?: May 31
0xea7f9e…7897
Analysis
This contract predicts whether Russia will capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by a specific date (not stated in available data), currently priced at 3% probability. The low probability reflects the substantial distance between current front lines and this logistics hub, combined with Ukraine's defensive capabilities and the significant military resources required for Russian advancement. Related contracts show traders assigning only 10% odds to Russian capture of Kostyantynivka by May 31, 2026, suggesting skepticism about near-term Russian territorial gains in this sector. The primary uncertainty driver is the pace of Russian offensive operations and whether they can sustain momentum against Ukrainian resistance. Major catalysts include verified reports of front-line movement, changes in force composition, or shifts in territorial control that would indicate capability for deeper advances into Donetsk Oblast.
- ›Distance and logistics: Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi's location relative to current Russian-controlled territory and supply lines
- ›Comparative market pricing: Related contracts value Kostyantynivka capture by December 31, 2026 at 77% but June 30 at only 27%, indicating time-dependency
- ›Ukrainian defensive capacity: Historical resistance patterns and available defensive positions in the corridor
- ›Russian operational tempo: Documented rate of territorial change over previous months in this specific sector
- ›Contract expiration date: The unspecified deadline for this prediction, which determines the time window for Russian advancement
What moved the line
- May 2May 31↓3pp6→3¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (3% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In ukraine
Related reading
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 d ago.