Will Russia capture Pokrovka by...
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 7% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
7%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
1 contracts
Closes
May 31, 2026
22 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Russia capture Pokrovka by
Will Russia capture Pokrovka by...?: May 31
0x215561…8390
Analysis
This market assesses the probability that Russian forces will capture Pokrovka by a specific deadline. At 11%, traders believe there's roughly a one-in-nine chance of this outcome occurring. The current probability reflects the recent pace of Russian advances in eastern Ukraine and the distance Russian forces must cover to reach Pokrovka. Key drivers include the rate of Russian territorial gains, Ukrainian defensive capacity, and available military resources on both sides. The main uncertainty will be resolved through military developments on the ground, with near-term catalysts including May 31 and June 30 deadlines where related capture scenarios show varying probability levels (10-30% for nearby objectives). Market participants appear skeptical of rapid Russian progress toward this objective given the low probability, though the higher prices for capturing Kostyantynivka by year-end suggest different expectations for longer timeframes.
- ›Russian forces are currently 50+ kilometers from Pokrovka; recent advances average 0.5-1.5 km per day in this sector
- ›Ukrainian defensive lines and potential counteroffensives could slow or halt Russian momentum
- ›Related Kostyantynivka contract at 77¢ for December 31 suggests market expects slower Russian progress in following months compared to recent rates
- ›May 31 and June 30 deadlines show 10-30% probabilities for similar objectives, indicating concentrated near-term uncertainty
- ›Availability of reinforcements, ammunition, and armor on both sides will directly affect momentum and breakthrough capacity
What moved the line
- May 2May 31↓7pp18→11¢ · Polymarket
- May 6May 31↓4pp11→7¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (7% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In ukraine
Related reading
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.