Will Russia capture Serhiivka by...
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 3% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
3%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
1 contracts
Closes
May 31, 2026
22 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Russia capture Serhiivka by
Will Russia capture Serhiivka by...?: May 31
0xc9def3…fb0c
Analysis
This contract predicts whether Russia will capture Serhiivka by a specific date. At 3% probability, markets assess this outcome as unlikely in the near term. The low probability reflects the current front lines in eastern Ukraine, where Russian forces continue grinding advances but face sustained Ukrainian resistance and logistical constraints. Key factors include the pace of Russian territorial gains, Ukrainian defensive capabilities and reinforcement rates, and the availability of combat troops and equipment for both sides. The main uncertainty hinges on whether Russian offensive momentum accelerates significantly or stalls—a determination that becomes clearer through verifiable territorial changes and casualty/equipment loss data over the coming weeks. Comparatively, markets price similar captures of nearby Kostyantynivka much higher for longer timeframes, suggesting geography and defensive positions differ meaningfully across these locations.
- ›Current distance and terrain between active Russian positions and Serhiivka, compared to other contested towns like Kostyantynivka
- ›Documented rate of Russian territorial advance over the past 30-60 days versus historical rates needed to reach the target by the contract deadline
- ›Ukrainian troop deployments and defensive preparations around Serhiivka, observable through military reporting
- ›Russian military casualty and equipment loss rates versus reported replacement and reinforcement flows
- ›Seasonal factors and weather conditions affecting combat operations in the region through the contract expiration date
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (3% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In ukraine
Related reading
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.