Will Russia capture Sofiivka by...
Leader sits at 31% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 5%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
June 30
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
5¢
May 31
Spread
26pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
52 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by
Analysis
This market is assessing whether Russian forces will capture Sofiivka, a Ukrainian settlement, by a specific deadline. The 9% probability reflects market expectations that this outcome is unlikely in the near term. The main factors influencing this probability are the current pace of Russian territorial advances in eastern Ukraine and the defensive capacity of Ukrainian forces in the region. Related markets show varying probabilities for nearby towns—with Kostyantynivka at 27% by June 30 and 77% by year-end—suggesting traders view Sofiivka as either farther from front lines or more defensible. The key catalyst for resolving uncertainty will be actual battlefield movements in the Donbas region over the coming weeks and months, as military progress or stalemate will directly determine whether Russian forces can reach this objective within the market's timeframe.
- ›Distance and positioning of Sofiivka relative to current Russian-controlled territory and active front lines
- ›Comparative capture probabilities for nearby settlements like Kostyantynivka (77% by end-2026) suggest market views on regional military momentum
- ›Time horizon of the specific market contract—earlier deadlines show dramatically lower probabilities (10% for May 31), indicating time is a significant factor
- ›Ukrainian defensive resources and NATO supply sustainability, which affect military capacity to hold or contest territory
- ›Russian force allocation and logistics capability in the eastern theater versus other operational priorities
What moved the line
- May 6June 30↓9pp31→22¢ · Polymarket
- May 7June 30↑9pp22→31¢ · Polymarket
- May 2May 31↓6pp15→9¢ · Polymarket
- May 6May 31↓4pp9→5¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (31% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In ukraine
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.