Will Russia capture Toretske by...
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 12% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
12%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
1 contracts
Closes
May 31, 2026
22 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Russia capture Toretske by
Will Russia capture Toretske by...?: May 31
0x1ebd43…98d7
Analysis
This market estimates an 8% probability that Russia will capture Toretske by a specific deadline. The assessment reflects the current pace of Russian advances in eastern Ukraine, where territorial gains have been measured in increments over months rather than rapid breakthroughs. The probability would likely shift based on changes in military momentum, including Russia's sustained offensive capability, Ukrainian defensive capacity, and availability of Western military support. The most significant near-term factors are the outcomes of ongoing operations around nearby Kostyantynivka and Pokrovsk—related frontline cities whose capture timelines suggest slower territorial change than earlier in the conflict. Market participants appear to be pricing in the difficulty of rapid urban capture operations, particularly as distances from Russian logistics increase.
- ›Russian forces have not achieved territorial gains exceeding 1-2 kilometers per month in this sector recently, making capture of defended towns within 2026 difficult to achieve
- ›Ukrainian defensive lines around Kostyantynivka show 27% market probability of capture by June 2026 and 77% by December 2026, suggesting similar timelines may apply to Toretske
- ›The contract volume and pricing suggest limited high-conviction betting on near-term Russian breakthroughs, indicating uncertainty about operational tempo
- ›Distance from Russian supply lines and urban defensive complexity increase friction in offensive operations compared to earlier phases of the conflict
- ›Western military aid commitments and Ukrainian force composition changes could substantially alter the defensive posture along this sector
What moved the line
- May 6May 31↑8pp9→17¢ · Polymarket
- May 2May 31↓5pp11→6¢ · Polymarket
- May 7May 31↓4pp17→13¢ · Polymarket
- May 3May 31↑3pp6→9¢ · Polymarket
- May 8May 31↓3pp13→10¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (12% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In ukraine
Related reading
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.