Will Russia enter Havrylivka by...
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 23% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
23%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$29
1 contracts
Closes
May 31, 2026
22 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Russia enter Havrylivka by
Will Russia enter Havrylivka by...?: May 31
0xb63e71…aa8e
Analysis
This market reflects the probability that Russian forces will capture Havrylivka by a specific deadline. The 21% probability suggests market participants view a Russian advance to this location as unlikely within the timeframe specified. The current assessment likely reflects recent operational tempo in the region, defensive positions, and the pace of territorial changes in eastern Ukraine. Key drivers would include Russian military offensive capacity, Ukrainian defensive effectiveness, and available resources on both sides. Related markets show varying confidence levels for nearby towns—some assigned higher odds (Novooleksandrivka at 74% by May 31) while others show lower expectations (Orikhiv at 15% by June 30), suggesting the market differentiates based on tactical positions and distance factors.
- ›Recent Russian operational tempo and rate of territorial advance in the Zaporizhzhia region compared to historical trends
- ›Defensive fortification status and troop positioning in and around Havrylivka relative to other contested areas
- ›Ukrainian counteroffensive capability and resource allocation in this sector versus other fronts
- ›Weather and seasonal conditions affecting military operations through the specified deadline
- ›Disparity between this market's 21% probability and the 74% probability assigned to Novooleksandrivka (May 31), suggesting market participants view Havrylivka as either further away or more defensible
What moved the line
- May 7May 31↑12pp20→32¢ · Polymarket
- May 8May 31↑11pp32→43¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in ukraine
- What will any participating candidate say during South Carolina GOP gubernatorial debatenolast 7% · 1d
- Will Wenyi Ding lead at the end of Round 1 in the Volvo China Openlast 3% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (23% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In ukraine
Related reading
Ukraine Re-Enters Rodynske: Battlefield Market Resolves at 93¢
The 'Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30?' contract surged +88¢ to 93¢ in a single session, one of the largest single-day moves in the entire dataset. The May 31 version also jumped +79¢ to 96¢. This near-certain resolution suggests Ukrainian forces have successfully re-entered the contested town of Rodynske.
Ukraine Re-Enters Rodynske — Biggest Battlefield Move in Prediction Markets
The 'Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30?' market exploded +92¢ to 96¢, one of the single largest moves in the entire dataset today. This effectively confirms Ukrainian forces have re-taken the town of Rodynske, representing a significant tactical reversal in the Donetsk region.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.