Will Russia enter Khatnie by...
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 16% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
16%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$46
1 contracts
Closes
May 31, 2026
22 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Russia enter Khatnie by
Will Russia enter Khatnie by...?: May 31
0xa222e4…5993
Analysis
This market reflects an 8% probability that Russian forces will capture Khatnie by a specific deadline. The low probability suggests market participants assess significant obstacles to Russian territorial advancement in this sector within the timeframe. Market sentiment appears influenced by the pace of Russian offensive operations in eastern Ukraine and the defensive capabilities of Ukrainian forces in the Zaporizhzhia region. Related contracts on nearby towns show varied expectations—higher confidence in Russian advances toward Novooleksandrivka by May 31, but lower confidence regarding Orikhiv timelines. The primary uncertainty drivers are the rate of Russian military progress, Ukrainian counteroffensive capacity, and logistical constraints affecting both sides. Resolution will occur through confirmed territorial control by Russian forces, typically documented through military reports and on-the-ground observation.
- ›Russian military offensive tempo in the Zaporizhzhia sector over the preceding 30 days relative to historical advance rates
- ›Ukrainian defensive positioning and reserve force availability in the Khatnie area
- ›Relative pricing of adjacent territorial claims (Novooleksandrivka at 74% vs Orikhiv at 26% suggests differentiated assessments of advancement difficulty by location)
- ›Logistical supply line sustainability for Russian forces conducting offensive operations in this sector
- ›International military aid flows to Ukraine affecting defensive capability and counteroffensive potential
What moved the line
- May 8May 31↑23pp18→41¢ · Polymarket
- May 7May 31↑10pp8→18¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (16% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In ukraine
Related reading
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.