Will Russia enter Malokaterynivka by...
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 4% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
4%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
1 contracts
Closes
May 31, 2026
22 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Russia enter Malokaterynivka by
Will Russia enter Malokaterynivka by...?: May 31
0x76598a…8f8f
Analysis
This market estimates a 5% chance that Russian forces will enter Malokaterynivka by an unspecified deadline. The low probability reflects the town's current position relative to active Russian offensive operations in southern Ukraine. The assessment would shift based on Russian military progress in neighboring areas—related markets show higher probabilities for other nearby settlements like Novooleksandrivka (74% by May 31) and Vasylivka (50% by May 31), suggesting market participants see those as more immediately threatened. The key driver of this probability is the pace and direction of Russian advances in Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk oblasts. Resolution depends on verified reports of Russian military presence within Malokaterynivka's administrative boundaries, which typically emerge through military analysis, local reports, or official announcements. The related contract activity indicates ongoing interest in Russian territorial gains across this region, with May and June deadlines suggesting near-term expectations.
- ›Novooleksandrivka carries 74% probability by May 31, while Malokaterynivka shows only 5%, indicating market participants view other settlements as more immediately threatened
- ›Related contracts span different deadlines (May 31 through July 31) with varying probabilities, reflecting uncertainty about both timing and pace of Russian advances
- ›Trading volume across regional contracts ($1,400-$4,000 daily) suggests active market interest but relatively dispersed confidence rather than consensus
- ›Malokaterynivka's location and current distance from Russian-controlled territory relative to higher-probability targets like Novooleksandrivka affects assessed breakthrough likelihood
- ›The 5% probability implies market assessment that Russian forces would need to overcome significant additional territory before reaching this specific settlement
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (4% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In ukraine
Related reading
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.