Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by...
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 26% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
26%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$13
1 contracts
Closes
May 31, 2026
22 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by
Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by...?: May 31
0x1be7da…203d
Analysis
This market reflects a 23% probability that Russian forces will enter Mykhailivka by a specific deadline. The low probability suggests market participants view a Russian advance into this location as unlikely within the timeframe in question. The current level is primarily driven by Russian operational tempo in this sector of the conflict and the defensive positions held by Ukrainian forces. Related markets show mixed expectations: nearby towns like Novooleksandrivka have much higher probabilities (74%) while others like Novyi Donbas remain low (22%), indicating markets distinguish between different geographic locations based on current military positions and strategic importance. The resolution will depend on verified reports of Russian military entry into Mykhailivka, likely confirmed through military assessments, satellite imagery, or official statements. Military momentum and logistical capacity in this specific theater will be the primary drivers of any significant probability shift.
- ›Current Russian military positions relative to Mykhailivka and the distance required to advance
- ›Ukrainian defensive capabilities and troop concentrations in the area
- ›Recent rate of Russian territorial gains in surrounding settlements
- ›Strategic importance of Mykhailivka relative to Russian operational objectives
- ›Availability of verified reporting mechanisms to confirm Russian entry when/if it occurs
What moved the line
- May 6May 31↑8pp23→31¢ · Polymarket
- May 7May 31↓3pp31→28¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (26% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In ukraine
Related reading
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.