Will Russia enter Stinky by...
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 10% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
10%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$25
1 contracts
Closes
May 31, 2026
27 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Russia enter Stinky by
Will Russia enter Stinky by...?: May 31
0xe26dcf…8415
Analysis
This represents the probability that Russian forces will capture Stinky, a settlement in Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia region, by a specific deadline. The 10% probability reflects skepticism about near-term Russian territorial gains in this sector, given the current pace of military operations and the distance Russian forces maintain from the settlement. The main factors driving this low probability are the relatively static front lines in this area and the logistical challenges of offensive operations. The deadline itself—whether set weeks or months ahead—determines feasibility; earlier deadlines naturally attract lower probabilities than later ones. Resolution depends entirely on verified reports of Russian military control of the settlement, making any major shift in local combat operations the critical trigger for probability movement.
- ›Current distance between Russian-held territory and Stinky, and documented front-line positions as of the resolution date
- ›Pace of Russian territorial advances in the Zaporizhzhia sector over the preceding 6-12 months
- ›Ukrainian defensive capabilities and force positioning in the Stinky area
- ›Logistics and supply line sustainability for Russian offensive operations in this theater
- ›Specific deadline embedded in the contract, which directly constrains the timeframe for capture
What moved the line
- Apr 27May 31↑27pp16→43¢ · Polymarket
- May 2May 31↓25pp39→14¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 30May 31↑19pp15→34¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 29May 31↓18pp33→15¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28May 31↓10pp43→33¢ · Polymarket
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (10% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In ukraine
Related reading
Ukraine Re-Enters Rodynske: Battlefield Market Resolves at 93¢
The 'Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30?' contract surged +88¢ to 93¢ in a single session, one of the largest single-day moves in the entire dataset. The May 31 version also jumped +79¢ to 96¢. This near-certain resolution suggests Ukrainian forces have successfully re-entered the contested town of Rodynske.
Ukraine Re-Enters Rodynske — Biggest Battlefield Move in Prediction Markets
The 'Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30?' market exploded +92¢ to 96¢, one of the single largest moves in the entire dataset today. This effectively confirms Ukrainian forces have re-taken the town of Rodynske, representing a significant tactical reversal in the Donetsk region.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 10 min ago.