Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by...
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 32% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
32%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$315
1 contracts
Closes
May 31, 2026
22 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by
Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by...?: May 31
0x684d40…145a
Analysis
This market estimates a 28% probability that Russian forces will capture Vozdvyzhivka, a settlement in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by a specific deadline. The probability reflects ongoing military dynamics in southern Ukraine, where front-line positions have remained relatively contested through spring 2026. Key drivers include Russian offensive capabilities versus Ukrainian defensive positioning in this sector. Related settlements show mixed probabilities: Novooleksandrivka appears more likely to fall by May 31 (74%), while Orikhiv shows lower near-term probability (26% by July 31). Resolution depends on verifiable Russian control of the settlement, typically confirmed by open-source military analysts and official statements. The spread across related locations suggests markets are pricing distinct tactical situations rather than treating all southern Ukrainian territory uniformly.
- ›Distance and logistics: Vozdvyzhivka's proximity to active front lines and Russian supply lines affects feasibility of capture within the timeframe
- ›Comparative settlement dynamics: Related towns show significantly different probabilities (Novooleksandrivka at 74% vs Orikhiv at 26%), indicating market participants see distinct tactical situations
- ›Timeline length: The unspecified deadline creates ambiguity—longer deadlines would typically command higher probabilities for territorial capture
- ›Ukrainian defensive capacity: Recent defensive performance in this sector and availability of reserves would directly impact probability trajectory
- ›Russian force allocation: Concentration of Russian troops toward other sectors (Pokrovsk, Kursk) versus Zaporizhzhia determines near-term offensive pressure
What moved the line
- May 7May 31↑6pp35→41¢ · Polymarket
- May 6May 31↑3pp32→35¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (32% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In ukraine
Related reading
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.