Will South Africa GDP growth rate QoQ for Q1 2026 be above 0.4%
Leader sits at 84% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 62%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 0.0%
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
62¢
Above 0.2%
Spread
22pp
contested
24h volume
$184
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 3, 2026
5 days
Venue
Kalshi
7 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will South Africa GDP growth rate QoQ for Q1 2026 be above
Will South Africa GDP growth rate QoQ for Q1 2026 be above 0.4%?: Above 0.4%
KXSAGDPQOQ-26JUN03-T0.4
Will South Africa GDP growth rate QoQ for Q1 2026 be above 0.2%?: Above 0.2%
KXSAGDPQOQ-26JUN03-T0.2
Will South Africa GDP growth rate QoQ for Q1 2026 be above 0.6%?: Above 0.6%
KXSAGDPQOQ-26JUN03-T0.6
Will South Africa GDP growth rate QoQ for Q1 2026 be above 1.2%?: Above 1.2%
KXSAGDPQOQ-26JUN03-T1.2
Will South Africa GDP growth rate QoQ for Q1 2026 be above 0.8%?: Above 0.8%
KXSAGDPQOQ-26JUN03-T0.8
Will South Africa GDP growth rate QoQ for Q1 2026 be above 1.0%?: Above 1.0%
KXSAGDPQOQ-26JUN03-T1.0
Will South Africa GDP growth rate QoQ for Q1 2026 be above 0.0%?: Above 0.0%
KXSAGDPQOQ-26JUN03-T0.0
Analysis
Markets are pricing an 84% chance that South Africa's economy contracted less than it might have, or grew slightly, in Q1 2026 on a quarter-over-quarter basis. The probability drops sharply as the growth threshold rises: only 46% of traders expect growth above 0.4%, and just 14% expect it above 0.8%. South Africa's economic performance depends heavily on electricity supply stability, commodity prices, and manufacturing activity. The official GDP data release from Statistics South Africa—typically published 5–7 weeks after quarter-end—will provide the definitive reading and resolve all contracts. Until then, recent load-shedding trends, electricity generation capacity additions, and global commodity demand will shape expectations.
- ›South Africa's actual Q1 2026 QoQ GDP figure will be released by Statistics South Africa, likely in late June or early July 2026, providing the only authoritative resolution
- ›Electricity load-shedding severity and generation capacity in Q1 2026 directly constrain manufacturing and services output, and any sustained grid improvements or deterioration would shift growth expectations
- ›Global commodity prices (especially platinum and iron ore) and rand exchange rates influence export revenues and import costs, affecting aggregate demand
- ›Manufacturing PMI, business confidence indices, and employment data released during April–May 2026 serve as advance indicators that traders use to adjust contract prices
- ›The steepness of the probability decline across thresholds (84% → 46% → 14%) indicates substantial uncertainty about whether growth will be weak-positive, flat, or negative
What moved the line
- May 27Above 0.6%↑3pp26→29¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in recession
- Will Japan inflation rate YoY for April 2026 be above 1.4%Above 1.3%last 86% · 6d
- Will the Japan inflation rate MoM for March 2026 be above -0.3%Above -0.2%last 94% · 6d
- Japan GDP growth in Q1 2026?: ≤-0.4%last 47% · 9d
- Will UK unemployment rate for March 2026 be above 4.6%Above 4.6%last 60% · 9d
- UK GDP growth in Q1 2026last 57% · 14d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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