Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.9% for the year ending in April 2026
Leader sits at 97% across 18 bound outcomes, runner-up at 97%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 4.0%
Outcomes
18
winner-take-all
Runner-up
97¢
Above 3.9%
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$20K
liquid
Closes
Aug 12, 2026
66 days
Venue
Kalshi
18 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.3% for the year ending in May 2026?: Above 4.3%
KXCPIYOY-26MAY-T4.3
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.0% for the year ending in May 2026?: Above 4.0%
KXCPIYOY-26MAY-T4.0
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.2% for the year ending in May 2026?: Above 4.2%
KXCPIYOY-26MAY-T4.2
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.1% for the year ending in May 2026?: Above 4.1%
KXCPIYOY-26MAY-T4.1
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.4% for the year ending in May 2026?: Above 4.4%
KXCPIYOY-26MAY-T4.4
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.2% for the year ending in June 2026?: Above 4.2%
KXCPIYOY-26JUN-T4.2
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.9% for the year ending in May 2026?: Above 3.9%
KXCPIYOY-26MAY-T3.9
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.1% for the year ending in June 2026?: Above 4.1%
KXCPIYOY-26JUN-T4.1
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.1% for the year ending in July 2026?: Above 4.1%
KXCPIYOY-26JUL-T4.1
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.9% for the year ending in July 2026?: Above 3.9%
KXCPIYOY-26JUL-T3.9
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.8% for the year ending in July 2026?: Above 3.8%
KXCPIYOY-26JUL-T3.8
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.7% for the year ending in July 2026?: Above 3.7%
KXCPIYOY-26JUL-T3.7
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.6% for the year ending in July 2026?: Above 3.6%
KXCPIYOY-26JUL-T3.6
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.4% for the year ending in July 2026?: Above 3.4%
KXCPIYOY-26JUL-T3.4
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.3% for the year ending in July 2026?: Above 3.3%
KXCPIYOY-26JUL-T3.3
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.2% for the year ending in July 2026?: Above 3.2%
KXCPIYOY-26JUL-T3.2
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.0% for the year ending in July 2026?: Above 3.0%
KXCPIYOY-26JUL-T3.0
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.8% for the year ending in May 2026?: Above 3.8%
KXCPIYOY-26MAY-T3.8
Analysis
This market estimates a 95% probability that the Consumer Price Index will show inflation above 3.9% for the 12-month period ending in April 2026. The high probability reflects recent inflation data and trajectory; markets are pricing in only a 5% chance that inflation falls to 3.9% or below by that endpoint. The main drivers are current CPI readings, Federal Reserve policy decisions, and labor market dynamics. Contract pricing shows declining conviction at higher thresholds—only 3 cents for above 4.0%—suggesting traders expect inflation in the 3.6–3.9% range rather than materially higher. The final April 2026 CPI release, scheduled for May 2026, will definitively resolve this question. Until then, traders are monitoring monthly inflation data, Fed communications, and economic growth signals for clues about whether disinflation continues or reverses.
- ›The 3-month trailing average of monthly CPI increases and the year-over-year inflation rate as of April 2026 will mechanically determine the outcome
- ›Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and forward guidance between now and April 2026 will influence inflation expectations and actual price pressures
- ›Labor market conditions, wage growth, and employment data are correlated with inflation persistence and will be tracked as leading indicators
- ›Commodity prices, energy costs, and global supply chain conditions remain material variables affecting consumer price levels
- ›The published CPI report for April 2026 (expected May 2026) is the single data release that will resolve this contract with certainty
What moved the line
- Jun 2Above 3.7%↑97pp2→99¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 4Above 3.0%↑60pp10→70¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 4Above 3.2%↑56pp10→66¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 4Above 3.4%↑56pp11→67¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 3Above 4.1%↑48pp3→51¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in recession
- Will the Truflation US CPI Housing Inflation Index on Jun 5, 2026 be above -0.08%last 3% · 1d
- Will Euro area inflation rate YoY flash for April 2026 be above 2.7%Above 2.7%last 86% · 5d
- Brazil GDP Growth in Q1 2026?: 1.9%–2.2%last 48% · 7d
- Will Euro area GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q1 2026 be above 1.6%last 61% · 8d
- Will France inflation rate YoY prel for April 2026 be above 1.9%Above 1.9%last 97% · 8d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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