Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.9% for the year ending in April 2026
Leader sits at 95% across 20 bound outcomes, runner-up at 93%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 3.0%
Outcomes
20
winner-take-all
Runner-up
93¢
Above 3.1%
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$3K
modest
Closes
Jan 13, 2027
115 days
Venue
Kalshi
20 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.3% for the year ending in November 2026?: Above 3.3%
KXCPIYOY-26NOV-T3.3
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.2% for the year ending in November 2026?: Above 3.2%
KXCPIYOY-26NOV-T3.2
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.5% for the year ending in November 2026?: Above 3.5%
KXCPIYOY-26NOV-T3.5
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.7% for the year ending in December 2026?: Above 3.7%
KXCPIYOY-26DEC-T3.7
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.7% for the year ending in November 2026?: Above 3.7%
KXCPIYOY-26NOV-T3.7
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.8% for the year ending in November 2026?: Above 3.8%
KXCPIYOY-26NOV-T3.8
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.4% for the year ending in November 2026?: Above 3.4%
KXCPIYOY-26NOV-T3.4
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.0% for the year ending in December 2026?: Above 4.0%
KXCPIYOY-26DEC-T4.0
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.9% for the year ending in December 2026?: Above 4.9%
KXCPIYOY-26DEC-T4.9
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.8% for the year ending in December 2026?: Above 4.8%
KXCPIYOY-26DEC-T4.8
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.6% for the year ending in December 2026?: Above 3.6%
KXCPIYOY-26DEC-T3.6
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.4% for the year ending in November 2026?: Above 4.4%
KXCPIYOY-26NOV-T4.4
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.2% for the year ending in November 2026?: Above 4.2%
KXCPIYOY-26NOV-T4.2
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.6% for the year ending in November 2026?: Above 3.6%
KXCPIYOY-26NOV-T3.6
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.5% for the year ending in December 2026?: Above 3.5%
KXCPIYOY-26DEC-T3.5
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.4% for the year ending in December 2026?: Above 3.4%
KXCPIYOY-26DEC-T3.4
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.3% for the year ending in December 2026?: Above 3.3%
KXCPIYOY-26DEC-T3.3
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.2% for the year ending in December 2026?: Above 3.2%
KXCPIYOY-26DEC-T3.2
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.1% for the year ending in December 2026?: Above 3.1%
KXCPIYOY-26DEC-T3.1
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.0% for the year ending in December 2026?: Above 3.0%
KXCPIYOY-26DEC-T3.0
Analysis
This metric indicates the market assessment of whether U.S. inflation will remain above 3.9% for the 12-month period ending in April 2026. The 96% probability reflects strong consensus that inflation will exceed this threshold, driven by sticky price pressures that have persisted despite Federal Reserve rate increases. The current pricing reflects actual inflation data through mid-2026 and expectations about near-term price trends. The primary uncertainty centers on whether disinflation accelerates sufficiently to push the year-over-year rate below 3.9% by April, which depends on wage growth trajectories, energy prices, and shelter costs—three components that have shown resilience. The June 2026 CPI release, scheduled for early July 2026, will provide the final actual data point determining whether the 12-month inflation rate crosses below this threshold, effectively resolving this contract by establishing the definitive annual inflation figure.
- ›The 3.9% threshold sits meaningfully above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, suggesting markets expect persistent above-target inflation into spring 2026
- ›Shelter costs, which comprise roughly one-third of CPI, remain elevated relative to historical averages and typically decline slowly even as broader disinflation occurs
- ›The price spread between contracts (96¢ for above 3.6% versus 3¢ for above 3.9%) indicates conviction that inflation will fall into the 3.6%-3.9% band rather than below 3.6%
- ›Wage growth data and labor market tightness through early 2026 would directly influence whether year-over-year inflation can decelerate below 3.9%
- ›Energy price volatility and geopolitical developments could drive unexpectedly higher near-term inflation readings that keep the annual rate elevated
What moved the line
- Sep 17Above 3.2%↑89pp3→92¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Above 3.3%↑88pp2→90¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Above 3.5%↑32pp38→70¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Above 3.7%↑27pp16→43¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Above 3.8%↑26pp5→31¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in recession
- What will China GDP growth be in 2026?last 32% · 1d
- What are the odds of a US recession in 2026?last 13% · 3d
- Will Trump order lower tariffs on Canada before Dec 1, 2026last 64% · 7d
- Will Trump order new or increased tariffs on Canada before Dec 1, 2026last 66% · 7d
- Will headline PCE inflation for August 2026 be above 0.0%last 87% · 9d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in recession.
In recession
Related reading
Copper crash signals recession fears as VIX jumps
Copper (CPER) dropped -2.37% to $38.27 while the VIX rose +0.87% to $17.49. This classic recession indicator combination has historically preceded economic contractions. Traders should watch for further copper weakness confirming demand destruction.
Copper Plunges 2.37% – Recession Signal or China Demand Fears?
Copper (CPER) dropped sharply, the second-worst performer after EEM, raising recession alarms. Combined with a slight VIX uptick and flat equities, the message is caution.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.