Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.9% for the year ending in April 2026

30-day trend

Analysis

This metric indicates the market assessment of whether U.S. inflation will remain above 3.9% for the 12-month period ending in April 2026. The 96% probability reflects strong consensus that inflation will exceed this threshold, driven by sticky price pressures that have persisted despite Federal Reserve rate increases. The current pricing reflects actual inflation data through mid-2026 and expectations about near-term price trends. The primary uncertainty centers on whether disinflation accelerates sufficiently to push the year-over-year rate below 3.9% by April, which depends on wage growth trajectories, energy prices, and shelter costs—three components that have shown resilience. The June 2026 CPI release, scheduled for early July 2026, will provide the final actual data point determining whether the 12-month inflation rate crosses below this threshold, effectively resolving this contract by establishing the definitive annual inflation figure.

• ›The 3.9% threshold sits meaningfully above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, suggesting markets expect persistent above-target inflation into spring 2026
• ›Shelter costs, which comprise roughly one-third of CPI, remain elevated relative to historical averages and typically decline slowly even as broader disinflation occurs
• ›The price spread between contracts (96¢ for above 3.6% versus 3¢ for above 3.9%) indicates conviction that inflation will fall into the 3.6%-3.9% band rather than below 3.6%
• ›Wage growth data and labor market tightness through early 2026 would directly influence whether year-over-year inflation can decelerate below 3.9%
• ›Energy price volatility and geopolitical developments could drive unexpectedly higher near-term inflation readings that keep the annual rate elevated

What moved the line

• Jul 17Above 3.1%↓53pp98→45¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 17Above 3.2%↑34pp1→35¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 23Above 3.2%↑32pp53→85¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 23Above 2.8%↑22pp2→24¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 22Above 3.1%↑21pp46→67¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds