Will UK inflation rate YoY for March 2026 be above 3.6%
Leader sits at 89% across 14 bound outcomes, runner-up at 86%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 2.4%
Outcomes
14
winner-take-all
Runner-up
86¢
Above 2.5%
Spread
3pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 17, 2026
11 days
Venue
Kalshi
14 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will UK inflation rate YoY for May 2026 be above
Will UK inflation rate YoY for May 2026 be above 2.4%?: Above 2.4%
KXUKCPIYOY-26JUN17-T2.4
Will UK inflation rate YoY for May 2026 be above 3.8%?: Above 3.8%
KXUKCPIYOY-26JUN17-T3.8
Will UK inflation rate YoY for May 2026 be above 3.7%?: Above 3.7%
KXUKCPIYOY-26JUN17-T3.7
Will UK inflation rate YoY for May 2026 be above 3.6%?: Above 3.6%
KXUKCPIYOY-26JUN17-T3.6
Will UK inflation rate YoY for May 2026 be above 3.4%?: Above 3.4%
KXUKCPIYOY-26JUN17-T3.4
Will UK inflation rate YoY for May 2026 be above 3.3%?: Above 3.3%
KXUKCPIYOY-26JUN17-T3.3
Will UK inflation rate YoY for May 2026 be above 3.2%?: Above 3.2%
KXUKCPIYOY-26JUN17-T3.2
Will UK inflation rate YoY for May 2026 be above 3.1%?: Above 3.1%
KXUKCPIYOY-26JUN17-T3.1
Will UK inflation rate YoY for May 2026 be above 3.0%?: Above 3.0%
KXUKCPIYOY-26JUN17-T3.0
Will UK inflation rate YoY for May 2026 be above 2.9%?: Above 2.9%
KXUKCPIYOY-26JUN17-T2.9
Will UK inflation rate YoY for May 2026 be above 2.8%?: Above 2.8%
KXUKCPIYOY-26JUN17-T2.8
Will UK inflation rate YoY for May 2026 be above 2.7%?: Above 2.7%
KXUKCPIYOY-26JUN17-T2.7
Will UK inflation rate YoY for May 2026 be above 2.6%?: Above 2.6%
KXUKCPIYOY-26JUN17-T2.6
Will UK inflation rate YoY for May 2026 be above 2.5%?: Above 2.5%
KXUKCPIYOY-26JUN17-T2.5
What moved the line
- May 30Above 2.9%↑9pp58→67¢ · Kalshi
- May 30Above 3.0%↑9pp46→55¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 4Above 3.0%↓9pp56→47¢ · Kalshi
- May 30Above 3.2%↑4pp21→25¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 2Above 3.2%↓4pp25→21¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in recession
- Will Euro area inflation rate YoY flash for April 2026 be above 2.7%Above 2.7%last 86% · 3d
- Brazil GDP Growth in Q1 2026?: 1.9%–2.2%last 48% · 6d
- Will Euro area GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q1 2026 be above 1.6%last 61% · 6d
- Will France inflation rate YoY prel for April 2026 be above 1.9%Above 1.9%last 97% · 6d
- Will Euro area GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 be above 0.7%last 89% · 6d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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The 'how high will inflation get in 2026: above 4%' contract collapsed -21¢ to 30¢ in a single session, making it one of the largest single-day moves in the recession/inflation cluster. The move appears directly connected to today's 7% oil price crash, which significantly reduces near-term inflation pressure.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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