Will the South Africa inflation rate MoM for May 2026 be above 1.0%
Leader sits at 68% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 52%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 0.2%
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
52¢
Above 0.4%
Spread
16pp
contested
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
Aug 19, 2026
0 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will South Africa inflation rate MoM for July 2026 be above
Will South Africa inflation rate MoM for July 2026 be above 0.6%?: Above 0.6%
KXSAMOMINF-26AUG19-T0.6
Will South Africa inflation rate MoM for July 2026 be above 0.2%?: Above 0.2%
KXSAMOMINF-26AUG19-T0.2
Will South Africa inflation rate MoM for July 2026 be above 0.4%?: Above 0.4%
KXSAMOMINF-26AUG19-T0.4
Will South Africa inflation rate MoM for July 2026 be above 0.8%?: Above 0.8%
KXSAMOMINF-26AUG19-T0.8
Will South Africa inflation rate MoM for July 2026 be above 1.0%?: Above 1.0%
KXSAMOMINF-26AUG19-T1.0
Analysis
This market reflects uncertainty about whether South Africa's month-over-month inflation rate for May 2026 will exceed 1.0%. The current probability of 50% suggests traders expect relatively modest monthly inflation, though contract prices show sharp decline in probability at higher thresholds—only 24¢ above 1.2% and 3¢ above 2.0%. South Africa's inflation environment depends on rand currency strength, fuel price movements, and food commodity costs. The May CPI data release from Statistics South Africa will definitively resolve this question; that announcement date serves as the key catalyst. Until then, traders are pricing meaningful uncertainty about whether monthly pressures will remain subdued or accelerate beyond typical ranges seen in recent months.
- ›South African fuel price dynamics in May 2026 and their pass-through to consumer baskets, which represent a material component of CPI
- ›Rand exchange rate movement against the dollar, since South Africa imports commodities and energy priced in foreign currency
- ›Food inflation trajectory, particularly for staple goods that carry high weight in the CPI basket
- ›Recent trend in month-over-month CPI readings leading into May to establish baseline expectations for momentum
- ›Statistics South Africa's official CPI release date and any preliminary data or surveys released before the final announcement
What moved the line
- Aug 18Above 0.6%↓17pp35→18¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 15Above 0.2%↑10pp56→66¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 18Above 0.8%↓6pp21→15¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 15Above 0.8%↓4pp26→22¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 17Above 0.6%↓3pp38→35¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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