Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by...
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 64% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
64%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1
1 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
195 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by
Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by...?: December 31
0xb8879d…9c6d
Analysis
This contract predicts whether Ukrainian forces will recapture Maliivka, a settlement in Donetsk region, by a specified deadline. The 11% probability reflects skepticism about Ukrainian military capability to regain this territory within the timeframe, given current frontline dynamics and resource constraints. The probability would rise if Ukrainian forces demonstrate significant territorial gains elsewhere or receive substantial military reinforcements, and would fall if Russian positions strengthen further. The key catalyst is the pace of active combat operations in Donetsk—major shifts in territorial control or announced military offensives would move this market meaningfully. Resolution hinges on independent verification of Ukrainian control over Maliivka at the contract deadline.
- ›Current distance of frontline from Maliivka and recent rate of Ukrainian territorial advance or retreat in the area
- ›Availability of Ukrainian reserve forces and Western military aid flows committed to offensive operations in Donetsk
- ›Status of Russian defensive fortifications and troop concentrations around Maliivka
- ›Historical precedent: timeline and conditions of previous Ukrainian recaptures in similar operational contexts
- ›Seasonal factors and weather patterns affecting combat operations between now and the contract deadline
What moved the line
- Jun 15December 31↑12pp51→63¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 14December 31↓8pp59→51¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 12December 31↓5pp61→56¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 13December 31↑3pp56→59¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in ukraine
- Will there be a Ukraine ceasefire?last 11% · 0d
- Will Russia capture Lyman by...last 3% · 0d
- Will Russia capture Havrylivka by...last 3% · 0d
- Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026last 3% · 0d
- Putin out as President of Russia by June 30last 3% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (64% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In ukraine
Related reading
Ukraine Ceasefire Odds Sink: December Target Loses 4 Cents
The probability of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by December 31 fell 4 cents to 47%, while the 'peace deal before 2027' contract edged up 1 cent to 29%. This divergence suggests traders see a ceasefire as less likely near-term, but are not giving up on a longer-term peace process. Russia's capture of key towns is also being priced.
Russia Captures Ukrainian Town: War Odds Flip
The probability of Russia capturing all of Hryshyne by May 31 jumped 59¢ to 83¢, signaling a major battlefield gain. This has knock-on effects for Ukraine peace deal markets and oil supply concerns from potential disruptions in the Black Sea.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.