Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by...
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 12% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
12%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
+1pp
13h ago
24h volume
$35
1 contracts
Closes
May 31, 2026
27 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by
Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by...?: May 31
0x8f999c…8c07
Analysis
This contract predicts whether Ukrainian forces will recapture Maliivka, a settlement in Donetsk region, by a specified deadline. The 11% probability reflects skepticism about Ukrainian military capability to regain this territory within the timeframe, given current frontline dynamics and resource constraints. The probability would rise if Ukrainian forces demonstrate significant territorial gains elsewhere or receive substantial military reinforcements, and would fall if Russian positions strengthen further. The key catalyst is the pace of active combat operations in Donetsk—major shifts in territorial control or announced military offensives would move this market meaningfully. Resolution hinges on independent verification of Ukrainian control over Maliivka at the contract deadline.
- ›Current distance of frontline from Maliivka and recent rate of Ukrainian territorial advance or retreat in the area
- ›Availability of Ukrainian reserve forces and Western military aid flows committed to offensive operations in Donetsk
- ›Status of Russian defensive fortifications and troop concentrations around Maliivka
- ›Historical precedent: timeline and conditions of previous Ukrainian recaptures in similar operational contexts
- ›Seasonal factors and weather patterns affecting combat operations between now and the contract deadline
What moved the line
- Apr 26May 31↓7pp31→24¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28May 31↓7pp24→17¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 29May 31↓4pp17→13¢ · Polymarket
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (12% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In ukraine
Related reading
Ukraine Re-Enters Rodynske: Battlefield Market Resolves at 93¢
The 'Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30?' contract surged +88¢ to 93¢ in a single session, one of the largest single-day moves in the entire dataset. The May 31 version also jumped +79¢ to 96¢. This near-certain resolution suggests Ukrainian forces have successfully re-entered the contested town of Rodynske.
Ukraine Re-Enters Rodynske — Biggest Battlefield Move in Prediction Markets
The 'Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30?' market exploded +92¢ to 96¢, one of the single largest moves in the entire dataset today. This effectively confirms Ukrainian forces have re-taken the town of Rodynske, representing a significant tactical reversal in the Donetsk region.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 15 min ago.