Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by May 31?
This contract is priced at 12¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 9¢ bid, 14¢ ask, 5¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
16
Family volume
$46.1M
Best sibling
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026 26¢
Ticker
0x8f999c0b…8c07
Price history
12¢ current
−39¢Orderbook snapshot
9 / 14¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Maliivka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, (47.920810° N, 36.618600° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET). Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
May 31, 2026
Identifier
0x8f999c0b…8c07
Event family
Ukraine / Russia conflict.
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$46.1M
Outcomes
16
Highest price
No meeting by June 30 91¢
Current share
0%
May 31
polymarket · 0x8f999c0b54dce9264ca0c60fd62b48eb53ea343df74c87f4801a2979a31f8c07
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026
polymarket · 0xaeea5f917fc5746387b5f9c0a4263dba035dbb3f0ac6ad72bf92183d21e26739
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026
polymarket · 0xe546672750517f62c45a5a00067481981e62b9c20fa8220203232c9dc8fd2093
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026
polymarket · 0x6bd56627aa21311850825edb27e53434a0e17a4f782be0086bc07f71eee00d0d
June 30, 2026
polymarket · 0x495e6b49e7397bb4e6f8ce69e246ccb33b744678bd9bf88cbecbd3a113b05423
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026
polymarket · 0xa93b28a6384aefff4e7d5adb2061c444e4a0e95b8ad17755f9cee123c7099b35
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)
polymarket · 0x8c48f3acf4177b5ceb012a8a2dc7a9c219eeae4a032d6ddcbc3c2ffab907439a
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026
polymarket · 0x51f624dbbf14f9edb575fef1be6f7a303751de70783fa144fce27b957452c803
Eurovision Winner 2026: Ukraine
polymarket · 0x79bc9eae1f5ce8f3f58648f45e7ff7cf182a8314e2d1a5b536520c5cc4b3e097
United Russia (ER)
polymarket · 0x502a94e5c525766d5ee7f16c6568131ba1b2cbadb69c703af05a6ef00336ed64
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire
polymarket · 0x9c1a953fe92c8357f1b646ba25d983aa83e90c525992db14fb726fa895cb5763
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30
polymarket · 0x1a1346d763389455dac46a51e20c4cc25aecef5323f1701a440cc11d4c3f129e
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027
polymarket · 0x48c2b06383f2bfe38ce3c68fc7623586b11817d061f52ecada284c82eb717f39
Other EU country
polymarket · 0x6c85fe5b4197dc55dafef8368acaddb96adb892447730dfa53076c537b0bd9f6
No meeting by June 30
polymarket · 0x90c6511dcc9499c2c58786a2456df333a87c97a9cf548acc26f3e4e56fbc36e7
Russia
polymarket · 0x9031561489f77ba1f89c0b963170a6853c39840e6e89a6a658a05d12b60a1ff0
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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