What will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit in May 2026?
Leader sits at 69% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 28%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
↓ $380
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
28¢
↓ $370
Spread
41pp
contested
24h volume
$7K
modest
Closes
Jun 1, 2026
7 days
Venue
Polymarket
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit in May 2026
What will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit in May 2026?: ↑ $410
0x9def76…c53b
What will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit in May 2026?: ↓ $380
0x3134f4…1be7
What will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit in May 2026?: ↓ $370
0x09c081…0979
What will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit in May 2026?: ↓ $350
0x007872…2a12
What will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit in May 2026?: ↓ $360
0xc56c30…295a
What will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit in May 2026?: ↓ $340
0x430254…503c
Analysis
This represents a 68% probability that Alphabet's stock will reach $410 or higher at some point during May 2026. The elevated odds reflect either strong recent momentum in the stock or market expectations of bullish catalysts within the month. The probability could shift substantially based on near-term earnings announcements, AI product developments, or broader market conditions affecting tech valuations. Traders are pricing in a meaningful chance the stock closes the month below key support levels ($380, $370), as evidenced by the runner-up contract at 40% and the distribution of bids across lower price targets. Since we are mid-month, the resolution window is relatively narrow, making recent price action and intraday volatility critical inputs for contract holders.
- ›GOOGL's current price relative to $410 strike and remaining trading days in May 2026
- ›24-hour volume concentration ($4,651 on the $410 contract vs. $2,025 on the $380 contract) indicates which outcome attracts more liquidity
- ›Implied volatility and the width of outcomes ($330–$420 range) suggests market uncertainty about near-term directional catalysts
- ›Historical correlation between tech sector moves and Alphabet's performance in the final two weeks of May
- ›Any scheduled earnings calls, product announcements, or macroeconomic data releases before month-end
What moved the line
- May 20↑ $410↓26pp55→29¢ · Polymarket
- May 24↑ $410↑19pp12→31¢ · Polymarket
- May 19↓ $380↑18pp40→58¢ · Polymarket
- May 21↓ $370↓15pp38→23¢ · Polymarket
- May 19↑ $410↓12pp67→55¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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