What will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit in May 2026?
Leader sits at 18% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 14%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
↑ $640
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
14¢
↓ $580
Spread
4pp
contested
24h volume
$658
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 1, 2026
7 days
Venue
Polymarket
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit in May 2026
What will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit in May 2026?: ↑ $640
0x86166d…7aba
What will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit in May 2026?: ↓ $580
0xa50765…0c12
What will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit in May 2026?: ↓ $560
0xe6c23a…2d7b
What will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit in May 2026?: ↑ $680
0x532aa6…3435
Analysis
This market assesses the likelihood that Meta's stock price will reach $640 or higher at some point during May 2026. The 43% probability reflects trader expectations that the stock has roughly even odds of appreciating to this level over the coming weeks. Current pricing suggests two competing scenarios: bullish traders expect upside momentum toward $640, while bearish traders see higher probability of the stock declining to $580 or lower. The divergence between the leading contract (44¢) and Polymarket's lower average (17%) indicates some disagreement across trading venues. Key drivers include Meta's upcoming earnings reports, changes in AI investment outlook, advertising market conditions, and macroeconomic factors affecting tech valuations. The resolution depends entirely on whether META touches or exceeds the $640 level before May 31, 2026, making any significant company announcement or market-wide tech shift a potential catalyst for repricing.
- ›Meta's actual stock price on May 19, 2026 versus the $640 strike level determines how much appreciation is required for contract resolution
- ›Scheduled earnings announcement or major product disclosure during May could shift expectations about near-term price momentum
- ›Broader tech sector performance and interest-rate expectations, which heavily influence growth-stock valuations in the $600+ range
- ›Volume concentration in the $640 bull contract ($10,886 24h volume) versus the $580 bear contract ($3,125 24h volume) shows asymmetric trading interest
- ›The gap between runner-up outcome (29% at $580) and leading outcome (43% at $640) suggests traders are split on whether META trends higher or consolidates/declines from current levels
What moved the line
- May 19↑ $640↓16pp51→35¢ · Polymarket
- May 22↓ $580↓13pp34→21¢ · Polymarket
- May 20↓ $580↑12pp33→45¢ · Polymarket
- May 21↓ $580↓11pp45→34¢ · Polymarket
- May 20↑ $640↓8pp35→27¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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