What will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit in May 2026?
Leader sits at 24% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 21%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
↑ $435
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
21¢
↑ $450
Spread
3pp
contested
24h volume
$219
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 1, 2026
7 days
Venue
Polymarket
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit in May 2026
What will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit in May 2026?: ↑ $435
0x0e131b…5115
What will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit in May 2026?: ↑ $465
0x6c5d76…cb1e
What will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit in May 2026?: ↓ $390
0x9e540f…eecf
What will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit in May 2026?: ↑ $450
0xb1d7ed…6c78
Analysis
This market estimates the probability that Microsoft's stock will trade at or above $450 by the end of May 2026 at 59%, reflecting traders' view that moderate upside is more likely than not. The probability reflects Microsoft's recent trading pattern and historical volatility; movement depends primarily on earnings performance, AI adoption metrics, and macroeconomic conditions. The contract pricing shows significant disagreement about magnitude—traders assign only 26 cents to a $450 hit versus 59 cents to a $435 level, suggesting consensus around near-term consolidation rather than sharp rallies. The $465 and $480 levels command minimal trading interest below 12 cents, indicating most traders expect limited upside acceleration this month. Microsoft's Q3 2026 earnings, if reported before May closes, would likely be the key catalyst resolving much of this uncertainty.
- ›Microsoft's May 2026 closing price relative to the $435–$450 range and whether it sustains above these levels
- ›Quarterly earnings results or forward guidance released during May 2026 that would signal AI and cloud revenue momentum
- ›Overall S&P 500 and tech sector performance, including any interest rate or inflation data affecting growth stock valuations
- ›Trading volume concentration: the $435 level dominates with $1,588 in 24h volume versus the target $450 level at $4,968, suggesting recent directional conviction but fragmented opinion on exact placement
- ›Gap between current price (implied ~$440–$445 range based on probabilities) and structural support or resistance levels that typically drive options activity
What moved the line
- May 20↑ $450↓11pp27→16¢ · Polymarket
- May 20↑ $435↓10pp50→40¢ · Polymarket
- May 22↑ $435↓8pp38→30¢ · Polymarket
- May 23↑ $435↓4pp30→26¢ · Polymarket
- May 21↑ $465↓4pp10→6¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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