What will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit in May 2026?
Leader sits at 28% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 4%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
↓ $70
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
4¢
↑ $85
Spread
24pp
contested
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
Jun 1, 2026
4 days
Venue
Polymarket
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit in May 2026
What will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit in May 2026?: ↓ $70
0x72843b…15f6
What will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit in May 2026?: ↓ $60
0xe26653…8fa9
What will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit in May 2026?: ↑ $100
0xa58541…88fa
What will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit in May 2026?: ↑ $85
0x272d64…0420
Analysis
This market estimates a 40% probability that Robinhood Markets' stock price will touch $70 or below during May 2026. Market participants are pricing in meaningful downside risk, with the second-most-likely outcome being an upward move to $85. The current price level of HOOD and recent volatility in retail trading stocks appear to be driving expectations. Key factors include overall market conditions and Fed policy direction, which affect investor appetite for retail brokerage stocks; Robinhood's quarterly earnings results and user growth metrics; competitive dynamics in the retail trading space; and broader sentiment around fintech valuations. Any significant market correction or disappointing earnings would increase the probability of the downside outcome, while strong earnings or sector momentum would favor upside scenarios.
- ›HOOD's current stock price relative to the $70 threshold and recent 30-60 day price trajectory
- ›Scheduled earnings announcements or major product updates planned for May 2026
- ›Broader market indices and volatility levels, particularly performance of fintech and retail trading sector peers
- ›Trading volume and retail investor activity metrics, which directly impact Robinhood's business performance
- ›Changes in regulatory environment or compliance costs affecting brokerage margins
What moved the line
- May 26↓ $70↓13pp47→34¢ · Polymarket
- May 24↓ $70↑11pp42→53¢ · Polymarket
- May 21↓ $70↓10pp43→33¢ · Polymarket
- May 22↓ $70↑9pp33→42¢ · Polymarket
- May 21↓ $60↓9pp13→4¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
- Will Brentford be Relegated from English Premier League in 2025-26 Seasonlast 94% · 2d
- Will Trump say "Autism" before Apr 27, 2026last 15% · 2d
- Matsumoto Yamaga FC vs. Fukushima United FClast 56% · 2d
- Montedio Yamagata vs. Shōnan Bellmāre - More Marketslast 82% · 2d
- Montedio Yamagata vs. Shōnan Bellmārelast 44% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.