Matsumoto Yamaga FC vs. Fukushima United FC
Leader sits at 56% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 22%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Matsumoto Yamaga FC
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
22¢
Draw (Matsumoto Yamaga FC vs
Spread
34pp
contested
24h volume
$27
thin orderbook
Closes
May 24, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Matsumoto Yamaga FC vs. Fukushima United FC
Matsumoto Yamaga FC vs. Fukushima United FC: Matsumoto Yamaga FC
0x702a50…5384
Matsumoto Yamaga FC vs. Fukushima United FC: Fukushima United FC
0x85ecbf…6bcc
Matsumoto Yamaga FC vs. Fukushima United FC: Draw (Matsumoto Yamaga FC vs. Fukushima United FC)
0x1e51d5…07ac
Analysis
This market reflects the 55% probability that Matsumoto Yamaga FC will defeat Fukushima United FC in an upcoming match, with a 27% chance of a Fukushima victory and 18% chance of a draw. The relatively modest confidence in Matsumoto reflects competitive balance in Japanese football, where team form, head-to-head history, and recent league performance significantly influence outcomes. The match result will resolve this uncertainty on a specific date when the two teams compete. Key variables affecting the probability include current league standings, recent win-loss records, player availability, and historical performance in direct matchups. The low trading volume on these contracts suggests limited market depth, meaning new information or significant bets could shift prices noticeably. Investors would primarily monitor team news closer to kickoff, including injury reports or lineup changes, which could alter the implied probabilities substantially.
- ›Current league positions and points differential between Matsumoto Yamaga FC and Fukushima United FC
- ›Recent form over the last 5-10 matches for both teams, including goals scored and conceded
- ›Head-to-head historical record and performance patterns in previous direct matchups
- ›Known player injuries, suspensions, or roster absences affecting either team's lineup
- ›Home/away advantage factor, venue conditions, and weather forecast for match day
What moved the line
- May 24Matsumoto Yamaga FC↓21pp55→34¢ · Polymarket
- May 24Draw (Matsumoto Yamaga FC vs. Fukushima United FC)↑12pp24→36¢ · Polymarket
- May 23Draw (Matsumoto Yamaga FC vs. Fukushima United FC)↓5pp29→24¢ · Polymarket
- May 23Fukushima United FC↓3pp24→21¢ · Polymarket
- May 24Fukushima United FC↓3pp21→18¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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