Montedio Yamagata vs. Shōnan Bellmāre
Leader sits at 44% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 28%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Shōnan Bellmāre
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
28¢
Montedio Yamagata
Spread
16pp
contested
24h volume
$46
thin orderbook
Closes
May 24, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Montedio Yamagata vs. Shōnan Bellmāre
Montedio Yamagata vs. Shōnan Bellmāre: Shōnan Bellmāre
0x5fabb7…57ac
Montedio Yamagata vs. Shōnan Bellmāre: Draw (Montedio Yamagata vs. Shōnan Bellmāre)
0xf215db…b458
Montedio Yamagata vs. Shōnan Bellmāre: Montedio Yamagata
0x9af5c6…eb8a
Analysis
This 42% probability indicates that Shōnan Bellmāre is currently favored to win an upcoming match against Montedio Yamagata, though neither team has overwhelming odds. The market pricing reflects Shōnan's slight edge, with Montedio at 34% and a draw at 28%. In Japanese football (J-League), match outcomes depend on recent form, head-to-head records, player availability, and home-field advantage. The current probability would shift upward for Shōnan if they enter the match on a winning streak or if key Montedio players are unavailable; it would move downward if Montedio shows improved recent performance or if injuries affect Shōnan's squad. The match date will be the primary catalyst that resolves this uncertainty, as the actual result will determine payout. Until then, the market is pricing in moderate confidence in Shōnan's chances rather than a strong consensus.
- ›Recent league standings and win-loss records for both teams in the 2026 season
- ›Head-to-head historical matchup data between Montedio Yamagata and Shōnan Bellmāre
- ›Confirmed player injuries, suspensions, or roster changes affecting either squad
- ›Home or away designation and venue (home-field advantage historically influences J-League outcomes)
- ›The specific match date and whether either team faces fixture congestion in surrounding weeks
What moved the line
- May 24Montedio Yamagata↑31pp30→61¢ · Polymarket
- May 24Shōnan Bellmāre↓19pp41→22¢ · Polymarket
- May 24Draw (Montedio Yamagata vs. Shōnan Bellmāre)↓13pp27→14¢ · Polymarket
- May 23Montedio Yamagata↓6pp36→30¢ · Polymarket
- May 23Draw (Montedio Yamagata vs. Shōnan Bellmāre)↓4pp31→27¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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