What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in May 2026?
Leader sits at 50% across 11 bound outcomes, runner-up at 38%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
↑ 208
Outcomes
11
winner-take-all
Runner-up
38¢
↑ $212
Spread
12pp
contested
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
Jun 1, 2026
4 days
Venue
Polymarket
11 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in May 2026
What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in May 2026?: ↑ 208
0x570849…2516
What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in May 2026?: ↑ $204
0xd11134…198c
What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in May 2026?: ↑ $212
0x88ce7e…5b37
What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in May 2026?: ↑ $216
0x3a5985…1637
What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in May 2026?: ↓ $146
0xc67204…5eec
What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in May 2026?: ↑ $220
0x1339fb…f5e0
What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in May 2026?: ↓ $164
0x8bc09a…bd15
What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in May 2026?: ↓ $144
0xe2d2f0…3581
What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in May 2026?: ↓ $156
0xdf60cf…c8bf
What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in May 2026?: ↓ $152
0x3c6312…5039
What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in May 2026?: ↓ $160
0x4a34d2…43db
Analysis
This market estimates an 88% probability that South Korea's ETF (EWY) will close below $172 in May 2026, with the competing outcome of reaching above $200 priced at just 30 cents. The high confidence in a downside close reflects recent weakness in South Korean equities, likely driven by macroeconomic concerns, currency headwinds, or geopolitical tensions on the peninsula. The probability could shift significantly if positive earnings surprises emerge, the Korean won strengthens against the dollar, or regional risk premiums compress. The key catalyst remains monthly employment and inflation data from South Korea, scheduled for early June, which would clarify whether current weakness reflects temporary market volatility or sustained economic softness. Until then, traders are pricing in substantial downside protection.
- ›EWY traded above $172 for most of 2025; current below-$172 pricing suggests meaningful deterioration in fundamentals or sentiment since then
- ›The $200 upside contract trades at 30¢ while the $172 downside trades at 86¢, indicating asymmetric risk perception favoring lower outcomes
- ›South Korean won weakness versus USD increases import costs and reduces earnings translation for multinational companies in the index
- ›Geopolitical risk premiums (North Korea tensions, US-Korea trade policy) can swing 2-4% swiftly on headline events
- ›Monthly Korean economic data (employment, inflation, industrial production) releases in early June will likely trigger contract settlement
What moved the line
- May 26↑ 208↑42pp17→59¢ · Polymarket
- May 27↑ $204↑37pp51→88¢ · Polymarket
- May 26↑ $212↑28pp19→47¢ · Polymarket
- May 21↓ $164↓27pp64→37¢ · Polymarket
- May 26↑ $204↑25pp26→51¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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