What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026?
Leader sits at 75% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 53%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
↓ $90
Outcomes
8
winner-take-all
Runner-up
53¢
↓ $85
Spread
22pp
contested
24h volume
$755K
liquid
Closes
Jun 1, 2026
8 days
Venue
Polymarket
8 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026?: ↑ $120
0x416e3c…f214
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026?: ↑ $110
0x4bab36…4cec
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026?: ↓ $80
0xa96e71…7909
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026?: ↓ $90
0x96d620…67a7
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026?: ↑ $115
0xdeb0a6…9c0b
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026?: ↓ $70
0x4f7f1f…d34c
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026?: ↓ $85
0x59a37e…cca8
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026?: ↑ $105
0x4788c5…dc9a
Analysis
This market is asking whether WTI crude oil will reach $110 per barrel at any point during May 2026. Currently trading at 56% probability, the contract reflects expectations that prices are more likely to exceed this threshold than stay below it. The outcome depends on global supply-demand dynamics, OPEC+ production decisions, and geopolitical developments affecting oil exports. Upward pressure could come from supply disruptions, increased demand, or production cuts, while downward pressure would result from demand weakness or supply increases. The contract resolves when May concludes, making real-time price movements through the month the primary driver of final probability. The runner-up contract ($95 threshold at 47%) suggests markets expect volatility within a $95–$110 range, with moderate conviction that the higher level gets breached.
- ›WTI has been trading in the $70–$90 range historically; reaching $110 would require either a significant supply shock or sustained demand surge within the next month
- ›OPEC+ production decisions and compliance rates directly influence supply; any announced cuts or disruptions to member production would increase the probability of hitting $110
- ›Geopolitical tensions affecting major producers (Middle East, Russia, Venezuela) create tail risk for supply disruptions that could push prices sharply higher
- ›The runner-up contract at $95 (47% probability) shows market consensus clusters around a $95–$110 band, indicating meaningful uncertainty between these two levels rather than strong directional conviction
- ›May 2026 contract expires at month-end, so all price discovery occurs within 12 days from today; near-term news flow on supply, demand, or geopolitical events will drive rapid repricing
What moved the line
- May 20↑ $110↓16pp60→44¢ · Polymarket
- May 23↓ $90↓16pp50→34¢ · Polymarket
- May 23↑ $110↑11pp30→41¢ · Polymarket
- May 20↓ $90↑11pp26→37¢ · Polymarket
- May 20↑ $115↓9pp39→30¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in oil
- Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be Between 85.00 and 85.99 on Apr 24, 2026$102 or abovelast 18% · 1d
- Will the brent crude oil close price be above 90 USD/Bbl on Apr 22, 2026 at 5pm EDTabove $100.00last 83% · 2d
- What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in April 2026?: ↑ $120$95.99 or belowlast 39% · 15d
- Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 26999.99 at the end of Apr 21, 2026 at 4pm EDT29,000 or abovelast 95% · 2d
- Will the S&P 500 be above 7224.9999 on Apr 21, 2026 at 4pm EDT7,250 or abovelast 95% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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Related reading
Oil Markets in Turmoil as Bullish Bets Collapse on Peace Hopes
WTI crude oil prediction markets are experiencing a dramatic reversal. The contract for oil falling to $95 in May surged 33¢ to 72¢, while bets on $110 crashed 22¢ to 38¢. This is directly tied to the rising odds of a US-Iran detente and the potential lifting of the Strait of Hormuz blockade.
Oil traders brace for extended Strait of Hormuz disruption
The probability of the US blockade being lifted by May 31 dropped 4¢ to 16¢, while the market for normal traffic by end of June sits at 28¢. Combined with WTI contracts pricing in a high likelihood of prices above $100, traders are betting on sustained supply risk.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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