Who will attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting
Leader sits at 70% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 68%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Jared Kushner
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
68¢
Steve Witkoff
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
52 days
Venue
Polymarket
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting
Who will attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?: J.D. Vance
0x7e5228…d1a8
Who will attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?: Jared Kushner
0xf0abc9…8d18
Who will attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?: Steve Witkoff
0x7e591f…0782
Who will attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?: Donald Trump
0xbdb17b…3d86
Who will attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?: Marco Rubio
0xa65e9c…8d9e
Recently closed in iran
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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Iran Peace Deal Odds Spike as Diplomacy Intensifies
Contracts for a permanent peace deal between the US and Iran by May 31 jumped 5¢ to 34¢ on Polymarket, while the June 30 deadline climbed to 54¢. The surge comes amid reports of back‑channel negotiations and a diplomatic meeting scheduled for mid‑May. Traders should watch the May 15 diplomatic meeting market, which collapsed 12¢ to 12¢, signaling a possible disconnect between expectations and reality.
Iran Peace Deal Odds Surge as Diplomacy Ramps Up
The probability of a U.S.-Iran permanent peace deal by June 30 has crossed 50¢ for the first time, signaling that traders see real progress in negotiations. Short-dated contracts expiring May 15 and May 31 have also spiked, indicating high conviction that a framework agreement could emerge within weeks.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 5 min ago.