Who will win Dancing with the Stars
Leader sits at 48% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 46%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Season 35?: Ciara Miller
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
46¢
Season 35?: Maura Higgins
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
217 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will win Dancing with the Stars: Season 35
Analysis
The 49% probability assigned to Ciara Miller reflects a near-tie outcome between her and Maura Higgins in Dancing with the Stars Season 35, indicating a highly competitive final stage where either contestant has roughly equal odds of winning. This level of uncertainty typically emerges when two finalists have demonstrated comparable technical skill, audience support, and judge scores throughout the competition. The probability could shift significantly based on the cumulative performance in remaining episodes—particularly dance technique execution, choreography interpretation, and crowd engagement—before the finale airs. The most immediate catalyst for resolution will be the final episode broadcast, which typically airs in late 2025 or early 2026 depending on the season's schedule. Market pricing reflects genuine competitive parity rather than a clear frontrunner, meaning either contestant's performance in closing performances could materially move these odds.
- ›Current pricing shows Ciara Miller at exactly 49% versus Maura Higgins at 49%, indicating no detectable market edge between finalists
- ›24-hour trading volume is $0 on both contracts, suggesting limited recent trading activity and potentially stale pricing
- ›The final episode has not yet aired as of the prediction date, leaving all resolution uncertainty intact
- ›Judge scores and viewer voting patterns from previous season episodes would be the primary data points informing contract values
- ›Season 35's finale date and any last-minute cast withdrawals or score corrections could trigger repricing before final resolution
What moved the line
- May 28Season 35?: Ciara Miller↓6pp48→42¢ · Polymarket
- May 23Season 35?: Maura Higgins↓3pp50→47¢ · Polymarket
- May 26Season 35?: Maura Higgins↓3pp47→44¢ · Polymarket
- May 28Season 35?: Maura Higgins↓3pp45→42¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (48% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.