WNBA: 2026 MVP
Leader sits at 39% across 14 bound outcomes, runner-up at 36%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
2026 MVP: A'ja Wilson
Outcomes
14
winner-take-all
Runner-up
36¢
2026 MVP: Caitlin Clark
Spread
3pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Sep 25, 2026
119 days
Venue
Polymarket
14 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
WNBA: 2026 MVP
WNBA: 2026 MVP: Satou Sabally
0x2a055e…cfd8
WNBA: 2026 MVP: Breanna Stewart
0xeba1e5…5fb9
WNBA: 2026 MVP: Gabby Williams
0xe46edd…bf22
WNBA: 2026 MVP: Allisha Gray
0xd929b4…8567
WNBA: 2026 MVP: Kelsey Plum
0xa8d117…83d5
WNBA: 2026 MVP: Caitlin Clark
0x8ac9d0…894b
WNBA: 2026 MVP: Napheesa Collier
0x839624…ab48
WNBA: 2026 MVP: Sabrina Ionescu
0x7b872e…883a
WNBA: 2026 MVP: Alyssa Thomas
0x79386f…0926
WNBA: 2026 MVP: Jackie Young
0x6af59f…694b
WNBA: 2026 MVP: Paige Bueckers
0x443ee0…386b
WNBA: 2026 MVP: A'ja Wilson
0x40ce87…18a8
WNBA: 2026 MVP: Rhyne Howard
0x3eac13…0661
WNBA: 2026 MVP: Nneka Ogwumike
0x349c4e…911d
What moved the line
- May 252026 MVP: Alyssa Thomas↓19pp26→7¢ · Polymarket
- May 252026 MVP: Jackie Young↓18pp26→8¢ · Polymarket
- May 252026 MVP: Nneka Ogwumike↓17pp26→9¢ · Polymarket
- May 262026 MVP: Jackie Young↑17pp8→25¢ · Polymarket
- May 262026 MVP: Alyssa Thomas↑17pp7→24¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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