SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all answer·14 source contracts·Polymarket 14·refreshed just now·Closes Sep 25, 2026 · 119d

WNBA: 2026 MVP

Leader sits at 39% across 14 bound outcomes, runner-up at 36%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

39%

2026 MVP: A'ja Wilson

runner-up 36¢leader 39¢

Outcomes

14

winner-take-all

Runner-up

36¢

2026 MVP: Caitlin Clark

Spread

3pp

contested

24h volume

$0

thin orderbook

Closes

Sep 25, 2026

119 days

Venue

Polymarket

14 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtoday2026 MVP: A'ja Wilson: 40% (12 days, 12 points)2026 MVP: A'ja Wilson: 40% on 2026-05-282026 MVP: Caitlin Clark: 36% (12 days, 11 points)2026 MVP: Caitlin Clark: 36% on 2026-05-282026 MVP: Rhyne Howard: 28% (12 days, 12 points)2026 MVP: Rhyne Howard: 28% on 2026-05-28
2026 MVP: A'ja Wilson40¢2026 MVP: Caitlin Clark36¢2026 MVP: Rhyne Howard28¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 12d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

What moved the line

  • May 252026 MVP: Alyssa Thomas19pp267¢ · Polymarket
  • May 252026 MVP: Jackie Young18pp268¢ · Polymarket
  • May 252026 MVP: Nneka Ogwumike17pp269¢ · Polymarket
  • May 262026 MVP: Jackie Young17pp825¢ · Polymarket
  • May 262026 MVP: Alyssa Thomas17pp724¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: just now.