Will Valentin Royer win the Royer vs Djokovic

The yield curve presents a flat structure across all 76 constituent markets, with every contract sharing an identical 15-day tenor to resolution on May 26, 2025. This uniformity eliminates the traditional term-structure analysis, as there is no variation in time-to-maturity to reveal steepening, flattening, or inversion patterns. Within this single tenor bucket, YES probabilities range substantially from 1% (SINTAB-TAB) to 98% (SINTAB-SIN), indicating extreme dispersion in market expectations across different match outcomes rather than temporal dynamics. The cheapest YES probabilities cluster around 7-12%, appearing in markets like COLVUK-VUK (7%), DESAM-SAM (7%), FONPAV-PAV (7%), POPSVA-SVA (13%), and RUUSAF-SAF (11%), while the most expensive hover near 91-98% in COLVUK-COL (91%), DESAM-DE (91%), FONPAV-FON (92%), and SINTAB-SIN (98%). The flat curve structure indicates the market views the May 26 event resolution date as fixed and certain, with no temporal uncertainty about when outcomes will be determined. The wide probability dispersion reflects confidence in the event's occurrence but profound disagreement about specific match results. High-volume markets like LLATIR-TIR ($117.4M), GARTIE-TIE ($32.8M), and JACTRU-JAC ($55.9M) show balanced probabilities near 50-56%, suggesting genuine uncertainty in those matchups, while extreme probabilities in low-volume markets may reflect thin liquidity or niche participant conviction rather than broad consensus