Will Aileen Cannon become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?
Prediction markets currently give a 7% probability that Will Aileen Cannon become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?. This contract trades at 7¢ on Kalshi, closing January 21, 2029. This market prices Cannon's Supreme Court confirmation at just 10%, reflecting significant skepticism about her nomination prospects despite over 1,000 days until expiration.
Analysis
This market prices Cannon's Supreme Court confirmation at just 10%, reflecting significant skepticism about her nomination prospects despite over 1,000 days until expiration. The asymmetric implied yields—325% for Yes versus 4% for No—highlight the extreme risk premium on the affirmative side, though the minimal $48.78 daily volume and tight $12,121 open interest suggest thin liquidity that could amplify price swings. The recent 2-cent decline over seven days and elevated Cliff Risk Index of 9 indicate this contract remains sensitive to political developments, though the neutral regime score suggests current market conditions lack directional conviction.
Resolution rules
If Aileen Cannon is the first person confirmed by the Senate to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court by January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXSCOURT-29-AC yes 100