Bank of Japan Hold in April Now Underpriced After Yen Moves

Kalshi prices only a 38% chance the BOJ holds rates at its April 27 meeting — but with global recession fears rising, VIX at 33, and trade war uncertainty hammering export-dependent Japan, the BOJ has every reason to pause. The market moved +9 cents today, signaling fresh information. Consensus among EM rate watchers is that BOJ tightening is on hold until the US tariff picture clears. This should be 65%+.