Democrats Flip the House: 88¢ Still Has Room to Run

Democrats are priced at 88% to win the House in 2026, up 1¢, but structural factors suggest this is still slightly underpriced. Historical midterm patterns under unified government opposition, Trump's approval ratings, and generic ballot trends all point toward a Democratic wave exceeding current pricing. The Mike Johnson Speaker removal market (+9¢ to 38%) signals internal GOP dysfunction amplifying the risk.