Fed Zero-Cut Scenario Underpriced as Oil Shock Fuels Stagflation

April Fed hold is locked at 98¢, but the 2026 full-year outlook is where the edge lies: 36% probability of zero cuts is surging while oil just spiked 12%. An energy-driven inflation resurgence — exactly what the Fed fears most — is now playing out in real time. The 65¢ probability that rates hit 3.25% before 2027 (up 11¢ today) is still underpriced given the oil shock. Buy the zero-cuts and elevated-rate scenarios; the stagflation trade is just beginning.